Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
2
Value bet: Arouca to win @ 2.90 – our chance 40% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultArouca to win ✗40% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.52
Estoril vs Arouca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Estoril welcome Arouca to Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota for a Primeira Liga fixture on Monday 7 September (20:15 WAT). In the table, Estoril are 18th, in the drop zone, on 2 points after 10 matches; Arouca are 5th (upper half) with 20. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Estoril, last 5: LLLDD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Benfica, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Arouca, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Maritimo, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Arouca, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.5 for Estoril.
Head to head
When they last met (6 Apr 2026) it ended Arouca 3–2 Estoril.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Estoril 1.2 xG, Arouca 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Estoril 37%, draw 23%, Arouca 40%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Arouca to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: Estoril 1–1 Arouca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Estoril37%fair 2.68 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.25
Arouca40%fair 2.49 · @2.90
2.38Expected goals
1.16Estoril xG
1.22Arouca xG
60%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Estoril 1.2 – 1.2 Arouca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Estoril vs Arouca?
On our numbers Estoril have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Arouca 40%.
How many goals will there be in Estoril vs Arouca?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estoril vs Arouca?
Our predicted score is Estoril 1–1 Arouca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Estoril vs Arouca?
Estoril vs Arouca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 7 September 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
