Benfica vs Alverca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 2 November the Primeira Liga brings Benfica against Alverca. Kick-off: 21:15 WAT. In the table, Benfica are 2nd, among the top four, on 28 points after 11 matches; Alverca are 11th (lower half) with 12. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Benfica, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over GIL Vicente, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.8 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Alverca, last 5: LDWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Arouca, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Benfica, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Alverca.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Benfica 2.5 xG, Alverca 0.9 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 65% for three or more goals, 58% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Benfica 74%, draw 14%, Alverca 12%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 2.00 – longer than our fair 1.73, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Benfica 2–1 Alverca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Benfica74%fair 1.36 · @1.17
Draw14%fair 7.03 · @7.00
Alverca12%fair 8.32 · @13.00
3.33Expected goals
2.47Benfica xG
0.86Alverca xG
58%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
2–19%
3–09%
1–09%
3–18%
1–18%
From our goals model: Benfica 2.5 – 0.9 Alverca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✓
74%
1.36
1.17
Double chance
Benfica or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Benfica (draw no bet)✓
86%
1.16
–
Asian handicap
Benfica -1 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
First team to score
Benfica to score first✓
72%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Benfica ahead at half-time✗
54%
1.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✗
49%
2.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.66
–
Recent results
Benfica – last 6
WWWWWL
29 Oct
vs GIL Vicente
4–1
W
26 Oct
@ Santa Clara
2–1
W
22 Oct
@ Omonia Nicosia
4–1
W
15 Oct
vs Celtic
4–1
W
11 Oct
vs Vitória SC
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ FC Porto
1–3
L
2.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Alverca – last 6
LDWWWL
24 Oct
vs Arouca
0–1
L
18 Oct
@ Tondela
0–0
D
12 Oct
@ Famalicao
4–1
W
19 Sep
vs Rio Ave
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Nacional
3–1
W
5 Sep
vs SC Braga
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica and Alverca.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Benfica vs Alverca?
On our numbers Benfica have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Alverca 12%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs Alverca?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Alverca?
Our predicted score is Benfica 2–1 Alverca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Benfica vs Alverca?
Benfica vs Alverca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Monday 2 November 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
