Trefelin vs Penybont: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penybont travel to face Trefelin on Friday 11 September in the Premier League, with Ynys Park the venue – the ball rolls at 19:45 WAT. In the table, Trefelin are 15th, in the drop zone, on 6 points after 16 matches; Penybont are 3rd (among the top four) with 36. There are 30 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Trefelin, last 5: DLDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Holywell, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Penybont, last 5: WDDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Colwyn Bay, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Penybont, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.3 for Trefelin.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Trefelin 0.6 xG, Penybont 2.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Trefelin 9%, draw 21%, Penybont 70%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Penybont to win (70%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Trefelin 0–2 Penybont. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Trefelin9%fair 11.04 · @6.50
Draw21%fair 4.84 · @4.80
Penybont70%fair 1.42 · @1.36
2.64Expected goals
0.60Trefelin xG
2.04Penybont xG
52%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–215%
0–115%
0–310%
1–29%
1–19%
0–07%
From our goals model: Trefelin 0.6 – 2.0 Penybont expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penybont to win✓
70%
1.42
1.36
Double chance
Penybont or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
1.95
Draw no bet
Penybont (draw no bet)✓
89%
1.13
–
Asian handicap
Penybont -1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Penybont to score first✓
72%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Penybont ahead at half-time✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penybont / FT Penybont✗
46%
2.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.20
–
Recent results
Trefelin – last 6
DLDLLL
4 Sep
@ Holywell
1–1
D
31 Aug
@ Haverfordwest County AFC
1–2
L
28 Aug
vs Ammanford AFC
1–1
D
21 Aug
vs Caernarfon Town
0–2
L
14 Aug
@ GAP Connah S Quay FC
0–6
L
7 Aug
vs Llandudno
0–4
L
0.5Scored / game
2.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Penybont – last 6
WDDWWW
5 Sep
vs Colwyn Bay
1–0
W
31 Aug
@ Cambrian & Clydach
2–2
D
28 Aug
vs Flint Town United
1–1
D
21 Aug
vs Llandudno
2–1
W
14 Aug
@ Haverfordwest County AFC
3–0
W
7 Aug
@ Caernarfon Town
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Trefelin and Penybont.
Our pick is Penybont to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Trefelin vs Penybont?
On our numbers Trefelin have a 9% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Penybont 70%.
How many goals will there be in Trefelin vs Penybont?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Trefelin vs Penybont?
Our predicted score is Trefelin 0–2 Penybont, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Trefelin vs Penybont?
Trefelin vs Penybont (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Ynys Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
