Value bet: FC St. Pauli to win @ 2.85 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultHolstein Kiel to win ✗41% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.66
Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:30 WAT, Friday 14 August: Holstein Kiel v FC St. Pauli in the 2. Bundesliga, played at Holstein-Stadion. In the table, Holstein Kiel are 18th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 11 matches; FC St. Pauli are 9th (upper half) with 12.
Current form
Holstein Kiel, last 5: DLLDW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with SV Darmstadt 98, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
FC St. Pauli, last 5: DDLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with SpVgg Greuther Fürth, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours FC St. Pauli, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Holstein Kiel.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Holstein Kiel 1.5 xG, FC St. Pauli 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Holstein Kiel 41%, draw 21%, FC St. Pauli 38%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.60.
Price worth noting: FC St. Pauli to win @2.85 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Holstein Kiel 1–1 FC St. Pauli. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Holstein Kiel41%fair 2.45 · @2.30
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.50
FC St. Pauli38%fair 2.64 · @2.85
2.89Expected goals
1.48Holstein Kiel xG
1.41FC St. Pauli xG
60%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–18%
2–06%
From our goals model: Holstein Kiel 1.5 – 1.4 FC St. Pauli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Holstein Kiel to win✗
41%
2.45
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.60
Draw no bet
Holstein Kiel (draw no bet)
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
FC St. Pauli +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.14
First team to score
Holstein Kiel to score first✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Holstein Kiel / FT Holstein Kiel✗
23%
4.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.66
–
Recent results
Holstein Kiel – last 6
DLLDWW
8 Aug
@ SV Darmstadt 98
2–2
D
29 Jul
@ 1899 Hoffenheim
1–3
L
25 Jul
@ FSV Mainz 05
0–3
L
18 Jul
@ Swansea
2–2
D
15 Jul
vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
4–1
W
10 Jul
vs Sonderjyske
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
FC St. Pauli – last 6
DDLWWW
9 Aug
vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
2–2
D
24 Jul
@ Bournemouth
1–4
L
19 Jul
vs HNK Gorica
2–1
W
11 Jul
@ SV Babelsberg 03
4–1
W
4 Jul
@ Kickers Emden
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Holstein Kiel and FC St. Pauli.
What is the prediction for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
On our numbers Holstein Kiel have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FC St. Pauli 38%.
How many goals will there be in Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Our predicted score is Holstein Kiel 1–1 FC St. Pauli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Holstein-Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
