Arminia Bielefeld 42%Draw 21%FC St. Pauli 37%Expected goals 1.64 – 1.53
80%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: FC St. Pauli to win @ 2.90 – our chance 37% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultArminia Bielefeld to win ✗42% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.57
Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 4 September the 2. Bundesliga brings Arminia Bielefeld against FC St. Pauli. Kick-off: 17:30 WAT. In the table, Arminia Bielefeld are 6th, upper half, on 17 points after 11 matches; FC St. Pauli are 9th (upper half) with 12.
Current form
Arminia Bielefeld, last 5: LDWLD Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to 1. FC Nürnberg, away. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
FC St. Pauli, last 5: LLDDD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to 1. FC Kaiserslautern, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Arminia Bielefeld, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.5 for FC St. Pauli.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arminia Bielefeld 1.6 xG, FC St. Pauli 1.5 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 60% and GG at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arminia Bielefeld 42%, draw 21%, FC St. Pauli 37%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: FC St. Pauli to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 FC St. Pauli. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arminia Bielefeld42%fair 2.39 · @2.25
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.60
FC St. Pauli37%fair 2.70 · @2.90
3.18Expected goals
1.64Arminia Bielefeld xG
1.53FC St. Pauli xG
64%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Arminia Bielefeld 1.6 – 1.5 FC St. Pauli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arminia Bielefeld to win✗
42%
2.39
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Draw no bet
Arminia Bielefeld (draw no bet)
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
FC St. Pauli +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.50
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
First team to score
Arminia Bielefeld to score first
50%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.61
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arminia Bielefeld / FT Arminia Bielefeld✗
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.57
–
Recent results
Arminia Bielefeld – last 6
LDWLDW
29 Aug
@ 1. FC Nürnberg
1–4
L
22 Aug
@ SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
2–2
D
16 Aug
vs Energie Cottbus
3–0
W
8 Aug
@ Karlsruher SC
1–2
L
25 Jul
vs MSV Duisburg
1–1
D
18 Jul
@ Bologna
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
FC St. Pauli – last 6
LLDDDL
30 Aug
vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern
1–2
L
23 Aug
@ Rot-Weiß Essen
0–2
L
14 Aug
@ Holstein Kiel
2–2
D
9 Aug
vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
2–2
D
24 Jul
@ Bournemouth
1–4
L
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arminia Bielefeld and FC St. Pauli.
What is the prediction for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?
On our numbers Arminia Bielefeld have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FC St. Pauli 37%.
How many goals will there be in Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?
Our predicted score is Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 FC St. Pauli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli?
Arminia Bielefeld vs FC St. Pauli (2. Bundesliga) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
