União de Leiria vs Tondela: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 28 August the Segunda Liga brings União de Leiria against Tondela at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT. In the table, União de Leiria are 5th, upper half, on 17 points after 10 matches; Tondela are 7th (upper half) with 16. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
União de Leiria, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Leixoes, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Tondela, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Academica, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours União de Leiria, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Tondela.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give União de Leiria 1.4 xG, Tondela 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – União de Leiria 43%, draw 23%, Tondela 34%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: União de Leiria 1–1 Tondela. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
União de Leiria43%fair 2.34 · @2.36
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.15
Tondela34%fair 2.92 · @2.85
2.59Expected goals
1.38União de Leiria xG
1.20Tondela xG
57%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: União de Leiria 1.4 – 1.2 Tondela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
União de Leiria to win✓
43%
2.34
2.36
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.77
1.75
Draw no bet
União de Leiria (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.80
–
Asian handicap
Tondela +1 (Asian handicap)✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
União de Leiria to score first✓
49%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT União de Leiria / FT União de Leiria✗
24%
4.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.53
–
Recent results
União de Leiria – last 6
WLLLWD
22 Aug
@ Leixoes
4–2
W
15 Aug
vs Benfica B
1–2
L
9 Aug
@ Vizela
0–1
L
28 Jul
@ Las Palmas
2–3
L
15 Jul
vs AD Marco 09
2–0
W
17 May
vs Feirense
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tondela – last 6
LLWLDL
21 Aug
vs Academica
0–2
L
16 Aug
@ Leixoes
0–1
L
8 Aug
vs Amarante
2–1
W
1 Aug
@ Rio Ave
1–3
L
29 Jul
vs São João Ver
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Beira-Mar
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between União de Leiria and Tondela.
What is the prediction for União de Leiria vs Tondela?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win União de Leiria vs Tondela?
On our numbers União de Leiria have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Tondela 34%.
How many goals will there be in União de Leiria vs Tondela?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for União de Leiria vs Tondela?
Our predicted score is União de Leiria 1–1 Tondela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is União de Leiria vs Tondela?
União de Leiria vs Tondela (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
