Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 1.91 – our chance 60% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPenafiel to win ✗60% · @1.91
Double chancePenafiel or draw ✗86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.60
Penafiel vs AVS: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:00 WAT, Friday 9 October: Penafiel v AVS in the Segunda Liga, played at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril. In the table, Penafiel are 1st, leading the league, on 22 points after 10 matches; AVS are 11th (lower half) with 13.
Current form
Penafiel, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Oliveirense, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.
AVS, last 5: WDLWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Sintrense, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Penafiel, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.5 for AVS.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penafiel 1.7 xG, AVS 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penafiel 60%, draw 26%, AVS 14%.
Lower-risk option: Penafiel or draw (86%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Penafiel to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Penafiel or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.17, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penafiel 1–0 AVS. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penafiel60%fair 1.68 · @1.91
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.00
AVS14%fair 7.04 · @3.90
2.50Expected goals
1.75Penafiel xG
0.75AVS xG
54%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Penafiel 1.7 – 0.8 AVS expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penafiel to win✗
60%
1.68
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Penafiel or draw✗
86%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.91
Draw no bet
Penafiel (draw no bet)✗
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Penafiel -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Penafiel to score first✗
64%
1.56
–
Half-time result
Penafiel ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penafiel / FT Penafiel✗
38%
2.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.60
–
Recent results
Penafiel – last 6
WWWWWD
19 Sep
@ Oliveirense
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Felgueiras 1932
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs Academica
4–1
W
30 Aug
@ FC Porto B
3–0
W
23 Aug
vs Sporting CP B
2–0
W
15 Aug
@ Torreense
2–2
D
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
AVS – last 6
WDLWDD
20 Sep
@ Sintrense
2–0
W
13 Sep
vs Farense
0–0
D
7 Sep
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
1–2
L
30 Aug
vs Feirense
2–0
W
23 Aug
@ Chaves
2–2
D
17 Aug
@ Felgueiras 1932
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penafiel and AVS.
Our pick is Penafiel or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Penafiel vs AVS?
On our numbers Penafiel have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 26% and AVS 14%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs AVS?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs AVS?
Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–0 AVS, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Penafiel vs AVS?
Penafiel vs AVS (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
