Wanderers vs Progreso: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Wanderers welcome Progreso for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Saturday 11 July (22:00 WAT). In the table, Wanderers are 10th, lower half, on 16 points after 13 matches; Progreso are 7th (upper half) with 19. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Wanderers, last 5: DWDDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Danubio, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Progreso, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Albion FC, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Wanderers, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Progreso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Wanderers 1.3 xG, Progreso 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Wanderers 45%, draw 27%, Progreso 28%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Wanderers 1–1 Progreso. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Wanderers45%fair 2.22 · @1.98
Draw27%fair 3.70 · @3.15
Progreso28%fair 3.58 · @3.70
2.39Expected goals
1.35Wanderers xG
1.04Progreso xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Wanderers 1.3 – 1.0 Progreso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Wanderers
Progreso
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-1%
-10%
Goals conceded vs average
+10%
+2%
Our expected goals here
1.30
1.06
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Wanderers to win✓
45%
2.22
1.98
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.85
Draw no bet
Wanderers (draw no bet)✓
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
Progreso +1 (Asian handicap)✗
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Wanderers to score first✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Wanderers / FT Wanderers✓
26%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.52
–
Recent results
Wanderers – last 6
DWDDWL
5 Jun
vs Danubio
0–0
D
31 May
@ Juventud
5–2
W
24 May
vs Deportivo Maldonado
1–1
D
17 May
@ Albion FC
0–0
D
8 May
vs Liverpool Montevideo
1–0
W
25 Mar
@ Albion FC
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Progreso – last 6
LWLLLD
7 Jun
vs Albion FC
1–2
L
30 May
@ Danubio
2–1
W
23 May
vs Atletico Torque
1–2
L
3 May
vs Cerro Largo
0–1
L
27 Apr
@ Defensor Sporting
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Liverpool Montevideo
3–3
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Wanderers and Progreso.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Wanderers vs Progreso?
On our numbers Wanderers have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Progreso 28%.
How many goals will there be in Wanderers vs Progreso?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Wanderers vs Progreso?
Our predicted score is Wanderers 1–1 Progreso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Wanderers vs Progreso?
Wanderers vs Progreso (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 11 July 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
