Cerro Largo 37%Draw 28%Defensor Sporting 35%Expected goals 1.13 – 1.06
64%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
1
Value bet: Cerro Largo to win @ 2.86 – our chance 37% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCerro Largo to win ✗37% · @2.86
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 13.18
Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
23:00 WAT, Monday 13 July: Cerro Largo v Defensor Sporting in the Primera División Apertura, played at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla. In the table, Cerro Largo are 15th, in the drop zone, on 9 points after 13 matches; Defensor Sporting are 13th (lower half) with 12. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Cerro Largo, last 5: DWLLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Liverpool Montevideo, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Defensor Sporting, last 5: LDDLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Cruzeiro, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Cerro Largo, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.3 for Defensor Sporting.
Head to head
When they last met (21 Feb 2026) it ended Defensor Sporting 1–0 Cerro Largo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cerro Largo 1.1 xG, Defensor Sporting 1.1 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 61%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cerro Largo 37%, draw 28%, Defensor Sporting 35%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Cerro Largo to win @2.86 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (64%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cerro Largo 1–1 Defensor Sporting. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cerro Largo37%fair 2.69 · @2.86
Draw28%fair 3.58 · @3.00
Defensor Sporting35%fair 2.86 · @2.45
2.19Expected goals
1.13Cerro Largo xG
1.06Defensor Sporting xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Cerro Largo 1.1 – 1.1 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-22%
-0%
Goals conceded vs average
+5%
+25%
Our expected goals here
1.24
1.12
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Cerro Largo have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Defensor Sporting 35%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Cerro Largo 1–1 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting?
Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 13 July 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
