Double chanceDeportivo Maldonado or draw ✗77% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.05
Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 18 July the Primera División Apertura brings Progreso against Deportivo Maldonado at Parque Abraham Paladino. Kick-off: 16:30 WAT. In the table, Progreso are 7th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Deportivo Maldonado are 4th (among the top four) with 22. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Progreso, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Wanderers, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Deportivo Maldonado, last 5: DWWDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Albion FC, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.
Momentum favours Deportivo Maldonado, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.5 for Progreso.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Progreso 0.9 xG, Deportivo Maldonado 1.5 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Progreso 23%, draw 26%, Deportivo Maldonado 51%.
Lower-risk option: Deportivo Maldonado or draw (77%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Progreso 0–1 Deportivo Maldonado. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Progreso23%fair 4.43 · @4.10
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.40
Deportivo Maldonado51%fair 1.95 · @1.82
2.38Expected goals
0.93Progreso xG
1.45Deportivo Maldonado xG
55%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–112%
0–210%
0–09%
1–29%
1–09%
From our goals model: Progreso 0.9 – 1.5 Deportivo Maldonado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Progreso
Deportivo Maldonado
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-10%
+14%
Goals conceded vs average
+2%
-23%
Our expected goals here
0.89
1.25
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Maldonado to win✗
51%
1.95
1.82
Double chance
Deportivo Maldonado or draw✗
77%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.85
Draw no bet
Deportivo Maldonado (draw no bet)✗
69%
1.44
–
Asian handicap
Progreso +1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Deportivo Maldonado to score first✗
55%
1.81
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado✗
29%
3.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.05
–
Recent results
Progreso – last 6
LLWLLL
11 Jul
@ Wanderers
0–2
L
7 Jun
vs Albion FC
1–2
L
30 May
@ Danubio
2–1
W
23 May
vs Atletico Torque
1–2
L
3 May
vs Cerro Largo
0–1
L
27 Apr
@ Defensor Sporting
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Deportivo Maldonado – last 6
DWWDWW
10 Jul
vs Albion FC
1–1
D
6 Jun
@ Atletico Torque
4–2
W
31 May
vs Club Nacional
3–0
W
24 May
@ Wanderers
1–1
D
18 May
vs Danubio
3–1
W
11 May
vs Boston River
2–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progreso and Deportivo Maldonado.
What is the prediction for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
On our numbers Progreso have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Deportivo Maldonado 51%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our predicted score is Progreso 0–1 Deportivo Maldonado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
