Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Liverpool Montevideo to win @ 2.72 – our chance 42% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win ✓42% · @2.72
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8% · fair 11.82
Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Defensor Sporting welcome Liverpool Montevideo to Estadio Luis Franzini for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Tuesday 21 July (00:00 WAT). In the table, Defensor Sporting are 13th, lower half, on 12 points after 13 matches; Liverpool Montevideo are 1st (leading the league) with 30. There are 18 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Defensor Sporting, last 5: DLDDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cerro Largo, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Liverpool Montevideo, last 5: LDWDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Cerro, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (14 Feb 2026) it ended Liverpool Montevideo 1–2 Defensor Sporting.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Defensor Sporting 0.9 xG, Liverpool Montevideo 1.3 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Defensor Sporting 32%, draw 27%, Liverpool Montevideo 42%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Liverpool Montevideo to win @2.72 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (65%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Defensor Sporting 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Defensor Sporting32%fair 3.16 · @2.52
Draw27%fair 3.77 · @3.10
Liverpool Montevideo42%fair 2.39 · @2.72
2.24Expected goals
0.94Defensor Sporting xG
1.30Liverpool Montevideo xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–010%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 0.9 – 1.3 Liverpool Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Defensor Sporting
Liverpool Montevideo
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
-0%
+15%
Goals conceded vs average
+25%
-31%
Our expected goals here
0.89
1.54
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✓
42%
2.39
2.72 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.36
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.93
Draw no bet
Liverpool Montevideo (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Defensor Sporting +1 (Asian handicap)
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Liverpool Montevideo to score first
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✓
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Liverpool Montevideo 42%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Tuesday 21 July 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
