Pontypridd Town 62%Draw 21%Llantwit Major 17%Expected goals 2.47 – 1.26
83%
Betarazi pick
Pontypridd Town or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Pontypridd Town to win @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPontypridd Town to win ✓62% · @1.75
Double chancePontypridd Town or draw ✓83% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.50
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.39
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.84
Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Llantwit Major travel to face Pontypridd Town on Tuesday 6 October in the FAW Championship, with USW Sports Park the venue – the ball rolls at 19:30 WAT. In the table, Pontypridd Town are 1st, leading the league, on 27 points after 13 matches; Llantwit Major are 15th (in the drop zone) with 12. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Pontypridd Town, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Aberystwyth Town, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Llantwit Major, last 5: WWDLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Carmarthen Town, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Pontypridd Town, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Llantwit Major.
Head to head
When they last met (6 Mar 2026) it ended Pontypridd Town 0–4 Llantwit Major.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pontypridd Town 2.5 xG, Llantwit Major 1.3 xG – a total near 3.7. That is an open game on paper: 72% for three or more goals, 63% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pontypridd Town 62%, draw 21%, Llantwit Major 17%.
Lower-risk option: Pontypridd Town or draw (83%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: Pontypridd Town to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Pontypridd Town or draw (83%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pontypridd Town 2–1 Llantwit Major. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pontypridd Town62%fair 1.60 · @1.75
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.50
Llantwit Major17%fair 5.98 · @3.75
3.73Expected goals
2.47Pontypridd Town xG
1.26Llantwit Major xG
63%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
3–18%
1–17%
2–07%
3–06%
1–06%
From our goals model: Pontypridd Town 2.5 – 1.3 Llantwit Major expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major?
Our pick is Pontypridd Town or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major?
On our numbers Pontypridd Town have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Llantwit Major 17%.
How many goals will there be in Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major?
Our predicted score is Pontypridd Town 2–1 Llantwit Major, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major?
Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major (FAW Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at USW Sports Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
