Tepatitlán 33%Draw 22%CA La Paz 45%Expected goals 1.26 – 1.87
79%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: CA La Paz to win @ 2.96 – our chance 45% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +33%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCA La Paz to win ✓45% · @2.96
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.38
Tepatitlán vs CA La Paz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
CA La Paz travel to face Tepatitlán on Saturday 8 August in the Liga De Expansión MX – the ball rolls at 02:00 WAT. In the table, Tepatitlán are 16th, in the drop zone, on 7 points after 15 matches; CA La Paz are 1st (leading the league) with 30. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tepatitlán, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Correcaminos Uat, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
CA La Paz, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Durango, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Tepatitlán, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.3 for CA La Paz.
Head to head
When they last met (11 Apr 2026) it ended CA La Paz 1–1 Tepatitlán.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tepatitlán 1.3 xG, CA La Paz 1.9 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 57% and GG at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tepatitlán 33%, draw 22%, CA La Paz 45%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: CA La Paz to win @2.96 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tepatitlán 1–1 CA La Paz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tepatitlán33%fair 3.00 · @2.20
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.60
CA La Paz45%fair 2.23 · @2.96
3.13Expected goals
1.26Tepatitlán xG
1.87CA La Paz xG
64%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–210%
0–18%
0–28%
2–16%
2–26%
From our goals model: Tepatitlán 1.3 – 1.9 CA La Paz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tepatitlán
CA La Paz
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
-30%
+32%
Goals conceded vs average
+47%
-14%
Our expected goals here
1.11
2.36
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Tepatitlán vs CA La Paz?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Tepatitlán vs CA La Paz?
On our numbers Tepatitlán have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and CA La Paz 45%.
How many goals will there be in Tepatitlán vs CA La Paz?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tepatitlán vs CA La Paz?
Our predicted score is Tepatitlán 1–1 CA La Paz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Tepatitlán vs CA La Paz?
Tepatitlán vs CA La Paz (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
