Alebrijes de Oaxaca 66%Draw 19%Tepatitlán 15%Expected goals 2.03 – 0.83
85%
Betarazi pick
Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Alebrijes de Oaxaca to win @ 1.70 – our chance 66% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAlebrijes de Oaxaca to win ✓66% · @1.70
Double chanceAlebrijes de Oaxaca or draw ✓85% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.22
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Tepatitlán travel to face Alebrijes de Oaxaca on Friday 14 August in the Liga De Expansión MX – the ball rolls at 02:00 WAT. In the table, Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 9th, lower half, on 22 points after 15 matches; Tepatitlán are 16th (in the drop zone) with 7. There are 15 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Alebrijes de Oaxaca, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Tlaxcala, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Tepatitlán, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 0–5 defeat to CA La Paz, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (4 Apr 2026) it ended Tepatitlán 2–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2.0 xG, Tepatitlán 0.8 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alebrijes de Oaxaca 66%, draw 19%, Tepatitlán 15%.
Lower-risk option: Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw (85%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Alebrijes de Oaxaca to win @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 66%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw (85%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.17, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2–0 Tepatitlán. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alebrijes de Oaxaca66%fair 1.52 · @1.70
Draw19%fair 5.22 · @3.85
Tepatitlán15%fair 6.74 · @4.50
2.86Expected goals
2.03Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
0.83Tepatitlán xG
56%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2.0 – 0.8 Tepatitlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán?
Our pick is Alebrijes de Oaxaca or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán?
On our numbers Alebrijes de Oaxaca have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Tepatitlán 15%.
How many goals will there be in Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán?
Our predicted score is Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2–0 Tepatitlán, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán?
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
