Value bet: Alebrijes de Oaxaca to win @ 1.90 – our chance 62% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlebrijes de Oaxaca to win ✗62% · @1.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.07
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alebrijes de Oaxaca welcome Tapatío for a Liga De Expansión MX fixture on Friday 28 August (02:00 WAT). In the table, Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 9th, lower half, on 22 points after 15 matches; Tapatío are 11th (lower half) with 18.
Current form
Alebrijes de Oaxaca, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to CDS Tampico Madero, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Tapatío, last 5: WWLWD Their latest outing: 4–2 win over Mineros de Zacatecas, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Head to head
When they last met (14 Mar 2026) it ended Alebrijes de Oaxaca 4–3 Tapatío.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.9 xG, Tapatío 1.0 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 56%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alebrijes de Oaxaca 62%, draw 16%, Tapatío 22%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Alebrijes de Oaxaca to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Tapatío. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alebrijes de Oaxaca62%fair 1.61 · @1.90
Draw16%fair 6.34 · @3.70
Tapatío22%fair 4.55 · @3.65
2.89Expected goals
1.91Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
0.98Tapatío xG
58%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
1–110%
2–010%
2–110%
3–06%
3–16%
From our goals model: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.9 – 1.0 Tapatío expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
On our numbers Alebrijes de Oaxaca have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Tapatío 22%.
How many goals will there be in Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
Our predicted score is Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 Tapatío, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío?
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tapatío (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
