Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Picks by market
ResultTapatío to win ✗42% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.63
Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Monday 7 September the Liga De Expansión MX brings Tapatío against Leones Negros UDG at Estadio Akron. Kick-off: 00:00 WAT. In the table, Tapatío are 11th, lower half, on 18 points after 15 matches; Leones Negros UDG are 2nd (among the top four) with 30. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Tapatío, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Alebrijes de Oaxaca, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Leones Negros UDG, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Piratas, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tapatío 1.7 xG, Leones Negros UDG 1.6 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 65% for three or more goals, 65% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tapatío 42%, draw 22%, Leones Negros UDG 36%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (65%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.54, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tapatío 1–1 Leones Negros UDG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tapatío42%fair 2.37 · @2.25
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.25
Leones Negros UDG36%fair 2.77 · @2.75
3.33Expected goals
1.74Tapatío xG
1.59Leones Negros UDG xG
65%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
2–27%
1–06%
0–16%
From our goals model: Tapatío 1.7 – 1.6 Leones Negros UDG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tapatío to win✗
42%
2.37
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.54
1.67 ▲
Draw no bet
Tapatío (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.86
–
Asian handicap
Leones Negros UDG +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
First team to score
Tapatío to score first✗
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.68
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tapatío / FT Tapatío✗
25%
3.99
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.63
–
Recent results
Tapatío – last 6
DWWLWD
28 Aug
@ Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1–1
D
24 Aug
vs Mineros de Zacatecas
4–2
W
15 Aug
@ Correcaminos Uat
3–2
W
9 Aug
@ Venados FC
2–3
L
2 Aug
vs CDS Tampico Madero
1–0
W
27 Jul
vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Leones Negros UDG – last 6
DWWLWW
30 Aug
vs Piratas
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ Durango
2–1
W
16 Aug
vs CDS Tampico Madero
4–0
W
7 Aug
vs Correcaminos Uat
1–3
L
2 Aug
@ Cancún
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Tlaxcala
4–2
W
2.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tapatío and Leones Negros UDG.
What is the prediction for Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG?
On our numbers Tapatío have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Leones Negros UDG 36%.
How many goals will there be in Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our predicted score is Tapatío 1–1 Leones Negros UDG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG?
Tapatío vs Leones Negros UDG (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Monday 7 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Akron.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
