Value bet: Piratas to win @ 2.82 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCA La Paz to win ✓41% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.80
CA La Paz vs Piratas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
04:00 WAT, Saturday 15 August: CA La Paz v Piratas in the Liga De Expansión MX, played at Estadio Guaycura. In the table, CA La Paz are 1st, leading the league, on 30 points after 15 matches; Piratas are 4th (among the top four) with 25.
Current form
CA La Paz, last 5: WLLDL Their latest outing: 5–0 win over Tepatitlán, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Piratas, last 3: WWD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Durango, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Piratas, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.7 for CA La Paz.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give CA La Paz 1.4 xG, Piratas 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – CA La Paz 41%, draw 21%, Piratas 38%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Piratas to win @2.82 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: CA La Paz 1–1 Piratas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
CA La Paz41%fair 2.45 · @2.30
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @3.55
Piratas38%fair 2.63 · @2.82
2.73Expected goals
1.39CA La Paz xG
1.33Piratas xG
59%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: CA La Paz 1.4 – 1.3 Piratas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CA La Paz to win✓
41%
2.45
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.62
Draw no bet
CA La Paz (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Piratas +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.13
First team to score
CA La Paz to score first✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CA La Paz / FT CA La Paz✓
22%
4.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.80
–
Recent results
CA La Paz – last 6
WLLDLL
8 Aug
@ Tepatitlán
5–0
W
1 Aug
vs Durango
0–1
L
26 Jul
@ Monarcas
2–4
L
1 Jul
@ FC Juarez
2–2
D
26 Apr
vs CDS Tampico Madero
1–2
L
23 Apr
@ CDS Tampico Madero
0–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Piratas – last 3
WWD
8 Aug
@ Durango
3–0
W
2 Aug
vs Monarcas
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ CDS Tampico Madero
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CA La Paz and Piratas.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win CA La Paz vs Piratas?
On our numbers CA La Paz have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Piratas 38%.
How many goals will there be in CA La Paz vs Piratas?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CA La Paz vs Piratas?
Our predicted score is CA La Paz 1–1 Piratas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is CA La Paz vs Piratas?
CA La Paz vs Piratas (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Guaycura.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
