Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Leones Negros UDG welcome Piratas to Estadio Jalisco for a Liga De Expansión MX fixture on Sunday 30 August (19:00 WAT). In the table, Leones Negros UDG are 2nd, among the top four, on 30 points after 15 matches; Piratas are 4th (among the top four) with 25.
Current form
Leones Negros UDG, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Durango, away. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.
Piratas, last 5: LLWWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cancún, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Leones Negros UDG, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.4 for Piratas.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones Negros UDG 1.3 xG, Piratas 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones Negros UDG 40%, draw 23%, Piratas 37%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Piratas. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones Negros UDG40%fair 2.48 · @2.60
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.30
Piratas37%fair 2.70 · @2.60
2.58Expected goals
1.33Leones Negros UDG xG
1.26Piratas xG
60%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 1.3 – 1.3 Piratas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leones Negros UDG to win✗
40%
2.48
2.60
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.73
Draw no bet
Leones Negros UDG (draw no bet)
52%
1.92
–
Asian handicap
Piratas +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.09
First team to score
Leones Negros UDG to score first
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leones Negros UDG / FT Leones Negros UDG✗
22%
4.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.97
–
Recent results
Leones Negros UDG – last 6
WWLWWL
23 Aug
@ Durango
2–1
W
16 Aug
vs CDS Tampico Madero
4–0
W
7 Aug
vs Correcaminos Uat
1–3
L
2 Aug
@ Cancún
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Tlaxcala
4–2
W
12 Apr
@ Venados FC
1–2
L
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Piratas – last 5
LLWWD
23 Aug
vs Cancún
0–1
L
15 Aug
@ CA La Paz
0–2
L
8 Aug
@ Durango
3–0
W
2 Aug
vs Monarcas
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ CDS Tampico Madero
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
0%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones Negros UDG and Piratas.
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas?
On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Piratas 37%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas?
Our predicted score is Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Piratas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas?
Leones Negros UDG vs Piratas (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
