Piratas 67%Draw 19%Alebrijes de Oaxaca 15%Expected goals 1.77 – 0.63
67%
Betarazi pick
Piratas to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.25Odds
Picks by market
ResultPiratas to win ✓67% · @1.25
Double chancePiratas or draw ✓85% · @1.05
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.22
Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Piratas welcome Alebrijes de Oaxaca for a Liga De Expansión MX fixture on Sunday 4 October (02:00 WAT). In the table, Piratas are 4th, among the top four, on 25 points after 15 matches; Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 9th (lower half) with 22. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Piratas, last 5: LWDWD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Mineros de Zacatecas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to CA La Paz, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Piratas, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Piratas 1.8 xG, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0.6 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 47%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Piratas 67%, draw 19%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 15%.
GG/NG: NG (53%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Piratas to win (67%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Piratas 1–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Piratas67%fair 1.50 · @1.25
Draw19%fair 5.37 · @5.00
Alebrijes de Oaxaca15%fair 6.88 · @10.00
2.40Expected goals
1.77Piratas xG
0.63Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
47%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–014%
1–110%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Piratas 1.8 – 0.6 Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Piratas to win✓
67%
1.50
1.25
Double chance
Piratas or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.05
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.90
1.62
Draw no bet
Piratas (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Piratas -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Piratas to score first✓
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Piratas ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Piratas / FT Piratas✓
41%
2.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.22
–
Recent results
Piratas – last 6
LWDWDL
25 Sep
@ Mineros de Zacatecas
0–3
L
19 Sep
vs Venados FC
2–1
W
11 Sep
@ Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Correcaminos Uat
4–1
W
30 Aug
@ Leones Negros UDG
1–1
D
23 Aug
vs Cancún
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 6
LLWLDL
25 Sep
vs CA La Paz
1–3
L
20 Sep
@ Cancún
0–3
L
11 Sep
vs Durango
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Monarcas
1–4
L
28 Aug
vs Tapatío
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ CDS Tampico Madero
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Piratas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
What is the prediction for Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our pick is Piratas to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
On our numbers Piratas have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 15%.
How many goals will there be in Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our predicted score is Piratas 1–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Piratas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
