Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.65 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
1
Value bet: Mosta to win @ 2.90 – our chance 44% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +27%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMosta to win ✗44% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.68
Mosta vs Birzebbuga: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 9 October the Premier League brings Mosta against Birzebbuga at Victor Tedesco Stadium. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Mosta are 9th on 15 points after 12 matches; Birzebbuga are 11th with 7.
Current form
Mosta, last 5: LDWWW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Sliema Wanderers, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Birzebbuga, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Valletta FC, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Momentum favours Mosta, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.0 for Birzebbuga.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mosta 1.3 xG, Birzebbuga 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mosta 44%, draw 23%, Birzebbuga 33%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Mosta to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mosta 1–1 Birzebbuga. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mosta44%fair 2.29 · @2.90
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.10
Birzebbuga33%fair 3.00 · @2.25
2.45Expected goals
1.33Mosta xG
1.12Birzebbuga xG
60%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Mosta 1.3 – 1.1 Birzebbuga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mosta to win✗
44%
2.29
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.66
1.65
Draw no bet
Mosta (draw no bet)
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Birzebbuga +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Mosta to score first✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mosta / FT Mosta✗
24%
4.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.68
–
Recent results
Mosta – last 6
LDWWWW
13 Sep
vs Sliema Wanderers
1–3
L
5 Sep
@ Marsaxlokk
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Birkirkara
1–0
W
23 Aug
vs Balzan FC
2–1
W
17 Aug
@ Hamrun Spartans
2–0
W
10 May
@ Naxxar Lions
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Birzebbuga – last 6
LLLLLL
19 Sep
vs Valletta FC
0–3
L
11 Sep
vs Hamrun Spartans
0–2
L
5 Sep
@ Balzan FC
0–3
L
30 Aug
vs Sliema Wanderers
1–2
L
22 Aug
@ Zabbar St. Patrick
0–1
L
14 Aug
vs Floriana
0–3
L
0.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mosta and Birzebbuga.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Mosta vs Birzebbuga?
On our numbers Mosta have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Birzebbuga 33%.
How many goals will there be in Mosta vs Birzebbuga?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mosta vs Birzebbuga?
Our predicted score is Mosta 1–1 Birzebbuga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Mosta vs Birzebbuga?
Mosta vs Birzebbuga (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Victor Tedesco Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
