Value bet: Venda Nova to win @ 2.75 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVenda Nova to win ✗40% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 10.67
Nacional AC MG vs Venda Nova: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Saturday 17 October: Nacional AC MG v Venda Nova in the Mineiro 3. In the table, Nacional AC MG are 6th on 2 points after 3 matches; Venda Nova are 4th with 4. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Nacional AC MG, last 4: LWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Novo Esporte Clube, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Venda Nova, last 4: WDWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Inter de Minas, at home. The attack is flying at 3.3 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nacional AC MG 1.3 xG, Venda Nova 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 48%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nacional AC MG 39%, draw 21%, Venda Nova 40%.
Price worth noting: Venda Nova to win @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (51%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nacional AC MG 1–1 Venda Nova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nacional AC MG39%fair 2.56 · @2.15
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.40
Venda Nova40%fair 2.51 · @2.75
2.66Expected goals
1.32Nacional AC MG xG
1.34Venda Nova xG
48%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Nacional AC MG 1.3 – 1.3 Venda Nova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Venda Nova to win✗
40%
2.51
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
–
Draw no bet
Venda Nova (draw no bet)
51%
1.98
–
Asian handicap
Nacional AC MG +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.94
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Venda Nova to score first
47%
2.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Venda Nova / FT Venda Nova✗
22%
4.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
10.67
–
Recent results
Nacional AC MG – last 4
LWWW
10 Oct
@ Novo Esporte Clube
0–1
L
5 Oct
vs Nova Lavras
2–1
W
25 Sep
@ Inter de Minas
1–0
W
21 Sep
vs Santarritense
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Venda Nova – last 4
WDWW
9 Oct
vs Inter de Minas
3–0
W
3 Oct
@ Novo Esporte Clube
0–0
D
27 Sep
@ Santarritense
8–0
W
19 Sep
vs Nova Lavras
2–1
W
3.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacional AC MG and Venda Nova.
What is the prediction for Nacional AC MG vs Venda Nova?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Nacional AC MG vs Venda Nova?
On our numbers Nacional AC MG have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Venda Nova 40%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional AC MG vs Venda Nova?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional AC MG vs Venda Nova?
Our predicted score is Nacional AC MG 1–1 Venda Nova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Nacional AC MG vs Venda Nova?
Nacional AC MG vs Venda Nova (Mineiro 3) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
