Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:30 WAT, Saturday 22 August: Borussia Dortmund v Bayern München in the Super Cup.
Current form
Borussia Dortmund, last 5: DWWLL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with AS Roma, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Bayern München, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 4–2 win over 1. FC Heidenheim, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Borussia Dortmund 1.2 xG, Bayern München 2.4 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 70% for three or more goals, 65% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Borussia Dortmund 16%, draw 22%, Bayern München 63%.
Lower-risk option: Bayern München or draw (84%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.40.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (70%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Borussia Dortmund 1–2 Bayern München. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Borussia Dortmund16%fair 6.41 · @4.65
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @4.20
Bayern München63%fair 1.59 · @1.61
3.59Expected goals
1.18Borussia Dortmund xG
2.41Bayern München xG
65%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–29%
0–28%
1–18%
1–38%
0–17%
0–36%
From our goals model: Borussia Dortmund 1.2 – 2.4 Bayern München expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayern München to win✓
63%
1.59
1.61
Double chance
Bayern München or draw✓
84%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.54
1.40
Draw no bet
Bayern München (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Bayern München -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.11
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.98
1.90
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.40
First team to score
Bayern München to score first✓
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Bayern München ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayern München / FT Bayern München✓
42%
2.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
10.57
–
Recent results
Borussia Dortmund – last 6
DWWLLW
15 Aug
vs AS Roma
2–2
D
9 Aug
@ Arsenal
3–2
W
1 Aug
@ FC Tokyo
1–0
W
29 Jul
@ Cerezo Osaka
0–1
L
25 Jul
@ Fortuna Düsseldorf
1–2
L
18 Jul
@ Rot-weiss Oberhausen
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Bayern München – last 6
WWWWLD
18 Aug
@ 1. FC Heidenheim
4–2
W
15 Aug
vs RB Leipzig
3–1
W
7 Aug
vs Aston Villa
2–1
W
4 Aug
@ Jeju United FC
2–1
W
25 Jul
@ SV Wehen
1–2
L
6 May
vs Paris Saint Germain
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern München.
What is the prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
On our numbers Borussia Dortmund have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bayern München 63%.
How many goals will there be in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
Our predicted score is Borussia Dortmund 1–2 Bayern München, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München (Super Cup) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Super Cup · Germany
