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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Arsenal v Manchester City: numbers & prediction

Community Shield · England · Principality Stadium

Arsenal

DLLWW
3–0
FT

Manchester City

WWDLD
Arsenal 38%Draw 22%Manchester City 39% Expected goals 1.31 – 1.34
73%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.30Odds

Picks by market

ResultManchester City to win ✗39% · @2.66
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.05

Arsenal vs Manchester City: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Manchester City travel to face Arsenal on Sunday 16 August in the Community Shield, with Principality Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT.

Current form

Arsenal, last 5: DLLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Como, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Manchester City, last 5: WWDLD Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Atletico Madrid, at home. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.

Head to head

When they last met (22 Mar 2026) it ended Arsenal 0–2 Manchester City.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Arsenal 1.3 xG, Manchester City 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Arsenal 38%, draw 22%, Manchester City 39%.
  • GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.70.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arsenal 1–1 Manchester City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Arsenal38%fair 2.62 · @2.52
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.35
Manchester City39%fair 2.54 · @2.66
2.65Expected goals
1.31Arsenal xG
1.34Manchester City xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
0–19%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–07%

From our goals model: Arsenal 1.3 – 1.3 Manchester City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultManchester City to win ✗39%2.542.66
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78%1.291.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗59%1.691.70
Draw no betManchester City (draw no bet) ✗51%1.97–
Asian handicapArsenal +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.60–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73%1.361.30
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗51%1.971.85
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓72%1.391.33
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓86%1.161.11
First team to scoreManchester City to score first ✗47%2.13–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗43%2.34–
Half-time / full-timeHT Manchester City / FT Manchester City ✗22%4.60–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8%12.05–

Recent results

Arsenal – last 6

DLLWWW
12 Augvs Como1–1D
9 Augvs Borussia Dortmund2–3L
5 Augvs Real Betis1–3L
1 Aug@ Girona4–1W
24 May@ Crystal Palace2–1W
18 Mayvs Burnley1–0W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Manchester City – last 6

WWDLDW
9 Augvs Atletico Madrid3–1W
5 Aug@ K-League Stars3–1W
1 Augvs Inter1–1D
24 Mayvs Aston Villa1–2L
19 May@ Bournemouth1–1D
13 Mayvs Crystal Palace3–0W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

22 Mar 2026Arsenal v Manchester City0–2
Arsenal vs Manchester City head-to-head page →

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Arsenal vs Manchester City?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Arsenal vs Manchester City?

On our numbers Arsenal have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Manchester City 39%.

How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Manchester City?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Manchester City?

Our predicted score is Arsenal 1–1 Manchester City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Arsenal vs Manchester City?

Arsenal vs Manchester City (Community Shield) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Principality Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.