MSV Duisburg v Hoffenheim II Prediction & Expected Goals (10 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultMSV Duisburg to win ✓60% · @1.70

Double chanceMSV Duisburg or draw ✓84% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.50

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓67% · fair 1.50

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.33

MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

MSV Duisburg welcome Hoffenheim II to MSV-Arena for a 3. Liga fixture on Saturday 10 October (15:30 WAT). In the table, MSV Duisburg are 2nd, among the top four, on 29 points after 13 matches; Hoffenheim II are 9th (upper half) with 19.

Current form

MSV Duisburg, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 4–1 win over SV Wehen, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.

Hoffenheim II, last 5: WWDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over SV Meppen, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give MSV Duisburg 2.3 xG, Hoffenheim II 1.2 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 67% for three or more goals, 64% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – MSV Duisburg 60%, draw 24%, Hoffenheim II 16%.
Lower-risk option: MSV Duisburg or draw (84%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.50.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was MSV Duisburg or draw (84%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: MSV Duisburg 2–1 Hoffenheim II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

MSV Duisburg60%fair 1.67 · @1.70

Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.80

Hoffenheim II16%fair 6.20 · @3.80

3.43Expected goals

2.27MSV Duisburg xG

1.16Hoffenheim II xG

64%Both score

67%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–110%

1–19%

2–08%

1–07%

3–17%

3–06%

From our goals model: MSV Duisburg 2.3 – 1.2 Hoffenheim II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	MSV Duisburg to win ✓	60%	1.67	1.70
Double chance	MSV Duisburg or draw ✓	84%	1.19	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	64%	1.57	1.50
Draw no bet	MSV Duisburg (draw no bet) ✓	79%	1.27	–
Asian handicap	MSV Duisburg -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	62%	1.61	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	86%	1.17	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	67%	1.50	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	55%	1.81	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	74%	1.35	–
First team to score	MSV Duisburg to score first ✗	64%	1.56	–
Half-time result	MSV Duisburg ahead at half-time ✗	47%	2.15	–
Half-time / full-time	HT MSV Duisburg / FT MSV Duisburg ✗	41%	2.47	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.33	–

MSV Duisburg – last 6

WWLWWL

20 Sep	@ SV Wehen	4–1	W
15 Sep	vs Havelse	2–1	W
12 Sep	@ Fortuna Düsseldorf	1–2	L
5 Sep	@ SSV Jahn Regensburg	2–1	W
29 Aug	vs Würzburger Kickers	3–0	W
22 Aug	vs SV Elversberg	1–3	L

2.2Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

83%Both scored

100%Over 2.5

Hoffenheim II – last 6

WWDLWW

19 Sep	vs SV Meppen	1–0	W
16 Sep	@ FC Ingolstadt 04	2–1	W
13 Sep	vs Fortuna Köln	2–2	D
6 Sep	@ SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	0–1	L
29 Aug	vs SSV Jahn Regensburg	5–1	W
15 Aug	@ Fortuna Düsseldorf	2–0	W

2.0Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Viktoria Köln	13	9	2	2	+18	29
2	MSV Duisburg	13	9	2	2	+15	29
3	Rot-Weiß Essen	13	8	3	2	+8	27
4	SV Wehen	13	6	3	4	+9	21
5	FC Ingolstadt 04	13	6	3	4	0	21
6	FC Saarbrücken	13	6	2	5	+5	20
7	Alemannia Aachen	13	6	2	5	0	20
8	Waldhof Mannheim	13	6	1	6	+3	19
9	Hoffenheim II	13	6	1	6	+2	19
10	Hansa Rostock	13	5	4	4	0	19
11	SV Meppen	13	5	3	5	0	18
12	Stuttgart II	13	5	3	5	-1	18
13	Fortuna Düsseldorf	13	4	4	5	-3	16
14	Preußen Münster	13	4	3	6	-4	15
15	Würzburger Kickers	13	4	2	7	-8	14
16	SSV Jahn Regensburg	13	3	4	6	0	13
17	Verl	13	3	3	7	-10	12
18	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	13	3	3	7	-16	12
19	Fortuna Köln	13	2	4	7	-6	10
20	Havelse	13	2	4	7	-12	10

Team

Pts

+18

+15

-1

-3

-4

-8

-10

SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach

-16

Fortuna Köln

-6

Havelse

-12

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II?

Our pick is MSV Duisburg or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II?

On our numbers MSV Duisburg have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Hoffenheim II 16%.

How many goals will there be in MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II?

We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II?

Our predicted score is MSV Duisburg 2–1 Hoffenheim II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.

When is MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II?

MSV Duisburg vs Hoffenheim II (3. Liga) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at MSV-Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

MSV Duisburg v Hoffenheim II: numbers & prediction