Value bet: Draw @ 3.30 – our chance 37% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✓37% · @3.30
Double chanceÜmraniyespor or draw ✓70% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗13% · fair 7.59
Ümraniyespor vs Mardin 1969: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 8 August the 1. Lig brings Ümraniyespor against Mardin 1969 at Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi. Kick-off: 17:00 WAT. In the table, Ümraniyespor are 12th, lower half, on 17 points after 13 matches; Mardin 1969 are 4th (among the top four) with 25.
Current form
Ümraniyespor, last 5: LLDWL Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Galatasaray, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Mardin 1969, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Mardin 1969, collecting 2.7 points per game to 0.7 for Ümraniyespor.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ümraniyespor 1.2 xG, Mardin 1969 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ümraniyespor 33%, draw 37%, Mardin 1969 30%.
Lower-risk option: Ümraniyespor or draw (70%) at 1.35.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ümraniyespor 1–1 Mardin 1969. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ümraniyespor33%fair 3.07 · @2.35
Draw37%fair 2.68 · @3.30
Mardin 196930%fair 3.31 · @2.70
2.35Expected goals
1.19Ümraniyespor xG
1.16Mardin 1969 xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Ümraniyespor 1.2 – 1.2 Mardin 1969 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
37%
2.68
3.30 ▲
Double chance
Ümraniyespor or draw✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.70
Draw no bet
Ümraniyespor (draw no bet)
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Mardin 1969 +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Ümraniyespor to score first✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ümraniyespor / FT Ümraniyespor✗
21%
4.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
13%
7.59
–
Recent results
Ümraniyespor – last 6
LLDWLL
17 Jul
vs Galatasaray
1–5
L
19 Apr
vs Vanspor FK
1–2
L
13 Apr
@ Amed
2–2
D
8 Apr
vs Sakaryaspor
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ Bodrum FK
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Sivasspor
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Mardin 1969 – last 6
DWWWWW
30 Apr
@ Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
0–0
D
19 Apr
@ Güzide Gebzespor
2–1
W
12 Apr
vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor
2–1
W
29 Mar
vs 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
1–0
W
25 Mar
@ Menemen FK
3–1
W
14 Mar
vs Kırklarelispor
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ümraniyespor and Mardin 1969.
What is the prediction for Ümraniyespor vs Mardin 1969?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Ümraniyespor vs Mardin 1969?
On our numbers Ümraniyespor have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 37% and Mardin 1969 30%.
How many goals will there be in Ümraniyespor vs Mardin 1969?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ümraniyespor vs Mardin 1969?
Our predicted score is Ümraniyespor 1–1 Mardin 1969, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Ümraniyespor vs Mardin 1969?
Ümraniyespor vs Mardin 1969 (1. Lig) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
