Value bet: Esenler Erokspor to win @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultEsenler Erokspor to win ✗60% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✗84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.50
Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ümraniyespor welcome Esenler Erokspor for a 1. Lig fixture on Saturday 22 August (17:00 WAT). In the table, Ümraniyespor are 12th, lower half, on 17 points after 13 matches; Esenler Erokspor are 10th (upper half) with 18. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ümraniyespor, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Fatih Karagümrük, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Esenler Erokspor, last 5: DDLLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sarıyer, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ümraniyespor 0.6 xG, Esenler Erokspor 1.4 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ümraniyespor 24%, draw 16%, Esenler Erokspor 60%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Esenler Erokspor to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.35 – longer than our fair 1.29, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ümraniyespor 0–1 Esenler Erokspor. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ümraniyespor24%fair 4.22 · @3.35
Draw16%fair 6.32 · @3.40
Esenler Erokspor60%fair 1.65 · @1.95
2.00Expected goals
0.64Ümraniyespor xG
1.36Esenler Erokspor xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–118%
0–014%
0–213%
1–112%
1–09%
1–28%
From our goals model: Ümraniyespor 0.6 – 1.4 Esenler Erokspor expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Esenler Erokspor to win✗
60%
1.65
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.65
Draw no bet
Esenler Erokspor (draw no bet)
72%
1.39
–
Asian handicap
Ümraniyespor +1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.93 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Esenler Erokspor to score first
59%
1.70
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Esenler Erokspor / FT Esenler Erokspor✗
32%
3.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.50
–
Recent results
Ümraniyespor – last 6
LDLLDW
15 Aug
@ Fatih Karagümrük
1–2
L
8 Aug
vs Mardin 1969
0–0
D
17 Jul
vs Galatasaray
1–5
L
19 Apr
vs Vanspor FK
1–2
L
13 Apr
@ Amed
2–2
D
8 Apr
vs Sakaryaspor
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Esenler Erokspor – last 6
DDLLWW
14 Aug
vs Sarıyer
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Sivasspor
0–0
D
24 May
vs Çorum FK
0–2
L
26 Apr
@ Sarıyer
0–1
L
19 Apr
vs Keçiörengücü
1–0
W
13 Apr
@ Sakaryaspor
2–1
W
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ümraniyespor and Esenler Erokspor.
What is the prediction for Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor?
On our numbers Ümraniyespor have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Esenler Erokspor 60%.
How many goals will there be in Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor?
Our predicted score is Ümraniyespor 0–1 Esenler Erokspor, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor?
Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor (1. Lig) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
