Good pick · fair odds 1.72 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.65Odds
2
Value bet: Fatih Karagümrük to win @ 3.30 – our chance 36% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultEsenler Erokspor to win ✗41% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.34
Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Esenler Erokspor welcome Fatih Karagümrük to Esenler Stadium for a 1. Lig fixture on Saturday 19 September (18:00 WAT). In the table, Esenler Erokspor are 10th, upper half, on 18 points after 14 matches; Fatih Karagümrük are 9th (upper half) with 19. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Esenler Erokspor, last 5: DLDLD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Bursaspor, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Fatih Karagümrük, last 5: DLDDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Manisa F.K., at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Fatih Karagümrük, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Esenler Erokspor.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Esenler Erokspor 1.2 xG, Fatih Karagümrük 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Esenler Erokspor 41%, draw 23%, Fatih Karagümrük 36%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Fatih Karagümrük to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.65). Most likely score in line with that pick: Esenler Erokspor 1–1 Fatih Karagümrük. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Esenler Erokspor41%fair 2.41 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.25
Fatih Karagümrük36%fair 2.77 · @3.30
2.36Expected goals
1.23Esenler Erokspor xG
1.13Fatih Karagümrük xG
58%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: Esenler Erokspor 1.2 – 1.1 Fatih Karagümrük expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Esenler Erokspor to win✗
41%
2.41
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.65
Draw no bet
Esenler Erokspor (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Fatih Karagümrük +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Esenler Erokspor to score first✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Esenler Erokspor / FT Esenler Erokspor✗
22%
4.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.34
–
Recent results
Esenler Erokspor – last 6
DLDLDD
13 Sep
@ Bursaspor
2–2
D
7 Sep
vs Kayserispor
0–3
L
3 Sep
@ Bodrum FK
0–0
D
30 Aug
vs Iğdır FK
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ Ümraniyespor
1–1
D
14 Aug
vs Sarıyer
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Fatih Karagümrük – last 6
DLDDWW
13 Sep
vs Manisa F.K.
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Batman Petrolspor
3–4
L
2 Sep
vs Kayserispor
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ İstanbulspor
1–1
D
21 Aug
vs Bursaspor
2–1
W
15 Aug
vs Ümraniyespor
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Esenler Erokspor and Fatih Karagümrük.
What is the prediction for Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
On our numbers Esenler Erokspor have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Fatih Karagümrük 36%.
How many goals will there be in Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Our predicted score is Esenler Erokspor 1–1 Fatih Karagümrük, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük?
Esenler Erokspor vs Fatih Karagümrük (1. Lig) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Esenler Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
