BSG Chemie Leipzig v Luckenwalde Prediction & Expected Goals (9 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultBSG Chemie Leipzig to win ✗62% · @1.83

Double chanceEither team to win ✓86% · @1.13

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.28

GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.26

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.31

BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Luckenwalde: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

BSG Chemie Leipzig welcome Luckenwalde for a Regionalliga Nordost fixture on Friday 9 October (18:00 WAT). In the table, BSG Chemie Leipzig are 14th, lower half, on 14 points after 16 matches; Luckenwalde are 18th (in the drop zone) with 8.

Current form

BSG Chemie Leipzig, last 5: WLWDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Erzgebirge Aue, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Luckenwalde, last 5: WLLLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Magdeburg II, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours BSG Chemie Leipzig, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.5 for Luckenwalde.

Head to head

When they last met (22 Mar 2026) it ended BSG Chemie Leipzig 1–0 Luckenwalde.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give BSG Chemie Leipzig 2.2 xG, Luckenwalde 1.2 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 69% for three or more goals, 66% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – BSG Chemie Leipzig 62%, draw 14%, Luckenwalde 23%.
GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.28.
Price worth noting: BSG Chemie Leipzig to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 62%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (69%, odds 1.26). Most likely score in line with that pick: BSG Chemie Leipzig 2–1 Luckenwalde. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

BSG Chemie Leipzig62%fair 1.61 · @1.83

Draw14%fair 6.90 · @4.25

Luckenwalde23%fair 4.31 · @3.04

3.38Expected goals

2.18BSG Chemie Leipzig xG

1.21Luckenwalde xG

66%Both score

69%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–110%

1–19%

2–08%

1–07%

3–17%

2–26%

From our goals model: BSG Chemie Leipzig 2.2 – 1.2 Luckenwalde expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	BSG Chemie Leipzig to win ✗	62%	1.61	1.83 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	86%	1.17	1.13
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	66%	1.51	1.28
Draw no bet	BSG Chemie Leipzig (draw no bet) ✗	73%	1.37	–
Asian handicap	Luckenwalde +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	63%	1.59	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	85%	1.17	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	69%	1.45	1.26
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	52%	1.92	1.91
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	71%	1.41	1.35
First team to score	BSG Chemie Leipzig to score first ✗	62%	1.61	–
Half-time result	BSG Chemie Leipzig ahead at half-time ✗	45%	2.24	–
Half-time / full-time	HT BSG Chemie Leipzig / FT BSG Chemie Leipzig ✗	38%	2.62	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.31	–

BSG Chemie Leipzig – last 6

WLWDDL

27 Sep	@ Erzgebirge Aue	2–1	W
20 Sep	vs Chemnitzer FC	1–3	L
16 Sep	@ Tasmania Berlin	5–2	W
12 Sep	vs FSV Zwickau	2–2	D
28 Aug	@ Altglienicke	1–1	D
25 Aug	@ Magdeburg II	0–1	L

1.8Scored / game

1.7Conceded / game

83%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Luckenwalde – last 6

WLLLLL

2 Oct	vs Magdeburg II	3–1	W
27 Sep	vs SV Babelsberg 03	2–3	L
20 Sep	@ Greifswalder FC	1–3	L
15 Sep	vs BFC Preussen	0–1	L
12 Sep	@ Erzgebirge Aue	1–2	L
30 Aug	vs BFC Dynamo	0–2	L

1.2Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	16	11	4	1	+29	37
2	Chemnitzer FC	16	10	3	3	+18	33
3	BFC Dynamo	16	9	5	2	+12	32
4	Hallescher FC	16	8	7	1	+11	31
5	Altglienicke	16	9	3	4	+12	30
6	Erzgebirge Aue	16	9	3	4	+7	30
7	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	16	8	3	5	+10	27
8	Greifswalder FC	16	7	5	4	+9	26
9	Lokomotive Leipzig	16	6	6	4	+3	24
10	Magdeburg II	16	6	3	7	-1	21
11	FSV Zwickau	16	5	4	7	-9	19
12	SV Babelsberg 03	16	4	4	8	-12	16
13	BFC Preussen	16	3	6	7	-3	15
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	16	3	5	8	-7	14
15	Hertha BSC II	16	2	6	8	-15	12
16	Tasmania Berlin	16	3	2	11	-24	11
17	RSV Eintracht	16	2	3	11	-20	9
18	Luckenwalde	16	2	2	12	-20	8

Team

Pts

+29

+18

+12

+11

+12

+10

-1

-9

-12

-3

-7

-15

-24

-20

-20

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Luckenwalde?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.

Who will win BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Luckenwalde?

On our numbers BSG Chemie Leipzig have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Luckenwalde 23%.

How many goals will there be in BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Luckenwalde?

We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Luckenwalde?

Our predicted score is BSG Chemie Leipzig 2–1 Luckenwalde, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.

When is BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Luckenwalde?

BSG Chemie Leipzig vs Luckenwalde (Regionalliga Nordost) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

BSG Chemie Leipzig v Luckenwalde: numbers & prediction