Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Greifswalder FC welcome Erzgebirge Aue for a Regionalliga Nordost fixture on Sunday 11 October (13:00 WAT). In the table, Greifswalder FC are 8th, upper half, on 26 points after 16 matches; Erzgebirge Aue are 6th (upper half) with 30.
Current form
Greifswalder FC, last 5: LWWDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to BFC Dynamo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Erzgebirge Aue, last 5: LDWWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to BSG Chemie Leipzig, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Greifswalder FC 1.7 xG, Erzgebirge Aue 1.9 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 72% for three or more goals, 68% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Greifswalder FC 38%, draw 18%, Erzgebirge Aue 44%.
GG/NG: GG (68%) at 1.26.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (72%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Greifswalder FC 1–2 Erzgebirge Aue. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Greifswalder FC38%fair 2.60 · @2.44
Draw18%fair 5.60 · @4.17
Erzgebirge Aue44%fair 2.29 · @2.11
3.61Expected goals
1.74Greifswalder FC xG
1.87Erzgebirge Aue xG
68%Both score
72%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–19%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
1–35%
0–15%
From our goals model: Greifswalder FC 1.7 – 1.9 Erzgebirge Aue expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Erzgebirge Aue to win✗
44%
2.29
2.11
Double chance
Either team to win✓
82%
1.22
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
68%
1.47
1.26
Draw no bet
Erzgebirge Aue (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.88
–
Asian handicap
Greifswalder FC +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.72
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.37
First team to score
Erzgebirge Aue to score first✗
50%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
35%
2.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Erzgebirge Aue / FT Erzgebirge Aue✗
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.15
–
Recent results
Greifswalder FC – last 6
LWWDDW
25 Sep
@ BFC Dynamo
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Luckenwalde
3–1
W
16 Sep
@ RSV Eintracht
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs Lokomotive Leipzig
3–3
D
30 Aug
@ Tasmania Berlin
2–2
D
26 Aug
vs SV Babelsberg 03
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Erzgebirge Aue – last 6
LDWWWD
27 Sep
vs BSG Chemie Leipzig
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt
2–2
D
16 Sep
@ Magdeburg II
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Luckenwalde
2–1
W
30 Aug
@ Lokomotive Leipzig
2–1
W
26 Aug
vs Hertha BSC II
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Greifswalder FC and Erzgebirge Aue.
What is the prediction for Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?
On our numbers Greifswalder FC have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Erzgebirge Aue 44%.
How many goals will there be in Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?
Our predicted score is Greifswalder FC 1–2 Erzgebirge Aue, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue?
Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue (Regionalliga Nordost) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
