Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.41 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.41Odds
2
Value bet: SSV Ulm 1846 to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSSV Ulm 1846 to win ✗44% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.52
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.36
FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
FSV Mainz 05 II welcome SSV Ulm 1846 for a Regionalliga SudWest fixture on Saturday 17 October (13:00 WAT). In the table, FSV Mainz 05 II are 15th, lower half, on 14 points after 15 matches; SSV Ulm 1846 are 17th (in the drop zone) with 11. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
FSV Mainz 05 II, last 5: DLWLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with FC Astoria Walldorf, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
SSV Ulm 1846, last 5: WDLDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt II, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FSV Mainz 05 II 1.4 xG, SSV Ulm 1846 1.6 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 64% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FSV Mainz 05 II 37%, draw 20%, SSV Ulm 1846 44%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.52.
Price worth noting: SSV Ulm 1846 to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (64%, odds 1.41). Most likely score in line with that pick: FSV Mainz 05 II 1–1 SSV Ulm 1846. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FSV Mainz 05 II37%fair 2.72 · @2.22
Draw20%fair 5.06 · @3.65
SSV Ulm 184644%fair 2.30 · @2.50
3.04Expected goals
1.44FSV Mainz 05 II xG
1.60SSV Ulm 1846 xG
64%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: FSV Mainz 05 II 1.4 – 1.6 SSV Ulm 1846 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
SSV Ulm 1846 to win✗
44%
2.30
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
80%
1.25
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.56
1.52
Draw no bet
SSV Ulm 1846 (draw no bet)
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
FSV Mainz 05 II +1 (Asian handicap)✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.59
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
1.41
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
First team to score
SSV Ulm 1846 to score first
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.54
–
Half-time / full-time
HT SSV Ulm 1846 / FT SSV Ulm 1846✗
25%
4.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.36
–
Recent results
FSV Mainz 05 II – last 6
DLWLLL
10 Oct
@ FC Astoria Walldorf
1–1
D
3 Oct
vs Freiburg II
0–2
L
26 Sep
@ Hessen Kassel
2–1
W
19 Sep
vs Kaiserslautern II
0–1
L
12 Sep
@ SGV Freiberg
0–5
L
9 Sep
vs VfR Mannheim
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
SSV Ulm 1846 – last 6
WDLDLL
10 Oct
vs Eintracht Frankfurt II
1–0
W
3 Oct
@ Hessen Kassel
2–2
D
26 Sep
vs Eintracht Trier
0–1
L
19 Sep
@ SV Sandhausen
2–2
D
12 Sep
vs FSV Frankfurt
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ VfR Aalen
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FSV Mainz 05 II and SSV Ulm 1846.
What is the prediction for FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.41.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846?
On our numbers FSV Mainz 05 II have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 20% and SSV Ulm 1846 44%.
How many goals will there be in FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846?
Our predicted score is FSV Mainz 05 II 1–1 SSV Ulm 1846, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846?
FSV Mainz 05 II vs SSV Ulm 1846 (Regionalliga SudWest) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
