US Mondorf-les-bains 55%Draw 24%Progres Niederkorn 21%Expected goals 1.83 – 1.04
79%
Betarazi pick
US Mondorf-les-bains or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: US Mondorf-les-bains to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultUS Mondorf-les-bains to win ✓55% · @1.95
Double chanceUS Mondorf-les-bains or draw ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.13
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Sunday 30 August: US Mondorf-les-bains v Progres Niederkorn in the National Division, played at Stade John Grun. In the table, US Mondorf-les-bains are 3rd, among the top four, on 27 points after 12 matches; Progres Niederkorn are 6th (upper half) with 22.
Current form
US Mondorf-les-bains, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over AS Jeunesse Esch, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Progres Niederkorn, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to UNA Strassen, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours US Mondorf-les-bains, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Progres Niederkorn.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give US Mondorf-les-bains 1.8 xG, Progres Niederkorn 1.0 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – US Mondorf-les-bains 55%, draw 24%, Progres Niederkorn 21%.
Lower-risk option: US Mondorf-les-bains or draw (79%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: US Mondorf-les-bains to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was US Mondorf-les-bains or draw (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: US Mondorf-les-bains 1–1 Progres Niederkorn. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
US Mondorf-les-bains55%fair 1.82 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.45
Progres Niederkorn21%fair 4.86 · @3.30
2.87Expected goals
1.83US Mondorf-les-bains xG
1.04Progres Niederkorn xG
61%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–09%
3–16%
0–16%
From our goals model: US Mondorf-les-bains 1.8 – 1.0 Progres Niederkorn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
US Mondorf-les-bains to win✓
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Double chance
US Mondorf-les-bains or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.67
Draw no bet
US Mondorf-les-bains (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Progres Niederkorn +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.20
–
First team to score
US Mondorf-les-bains to score first
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
US Mondorf-les-bains ahead at half-time✗
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT US Mondorf-les-bains / FT US Mondorf-les-bains✗
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.13
–
Recent results
US Mondorf-les-bains – last 6
WWWWWL
23 Aug
@ AS Jeunesse Esch
3–1
W
16 Aug
vs F91 Dudelange
1–0
W
9 Aug
@ Victoria Rosport
3–2
W
2 Aug
vs FC Differdange 03
3–2
W
16 Jul
@ Dinamo Tbilisi
1–0
W
9 Jul
vs Dinamo Tbilisi
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Progres Niederkorn – last 6
LWWWDL
22 Aug
vs UNA Strassen
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Atert Bissen
4–0
W
9 Aug
@ Résidence Walferdange
1–0
W
1 Aug
vs AS Jeunesse Esch
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs Excelsior Virton
1–1
D
22 Jul
vs APM Metz
2–5
L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between US Mondorf-les-bains and Progres Niederkorn.
What is the prediction for US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn?
Our pick is US Mondorf-les-bains or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn?
On our numbers US Mondorf-les-bains have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Progres Niederkorn 21%.
How many goals will there be in US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn?
Our predicted score is US Mondorf-les-bains 1–1 Progres Niederkorn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn?
US Mondorf-les-bains vs Progres Niederkorn (National Division) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade John Grun.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
