Value bet: Argentina to win @ 3.50 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSpain to win ✗41% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.02
Spain vs Argentina: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 19 July the World Cup brings Spain against Argentina at MetLife Stadium. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT.
Current form
Spain, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over France, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Argentina, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over England, away. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Momentum favours Spain, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.3 for Argentina.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Spain 1.3 xG, Argentina 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Spain 41%, draw 28%, Argentina 31%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Argentina to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Spain 1–1 Argentina. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Spain41%fair 2.43 · @2.20
Draw28%fair 3.56 · @3.00
Argentina31%fair 3.26 · @3.50
2.52Expected goals
1.30Spain xG
1.21Argentina xG
54%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Spain 1.3 – 1.2 Argentina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spain to win✗
41%
2.43
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
72%
1.39
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.87
1.90
Draw no bet
Spain (draw no bet)
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Argentina +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.06
First team to score
Spain to score first✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spain / FT Spain✗
22%
4.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.02
–
Recent results
Spain – last 6
WWWWWW
14 Jul
@ France
2–0
W
10 Jul
vs Belgium
2–1
W
6 Jul
@ Portugal
1–0
W
2 Jul
vs Austria
3–0
W
27 Jun
@ Uruguay
1–0
W
21 Jun
vs Saudi Arabia
4–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Argentina – last 6
WDWDWW
15 Jul
@ England
2–1
W
12 Jul
vs Switzerland
1–1
D
7 Jul
vs Egypt
3–2
W
3 Jul
vs Cape Verde Islands
1–1
D
28 Jun
@ Jordan
3–1
W
22 Jun
vs Austria
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spain and Argentina.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Spain vs Argentina?
On our numbers Spain have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Argentina 31%.
How many goals will there be in Spain vs Argentina?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spain vs Argentina?
Our predicted score is Spain 1–1 Argentina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Spain vs Argentina?
Spain vs Argentina (World Cup) kicks off on Sunday 19 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at MetLife Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
