Value bet: SSVg Velbert to win @ 1.87 – our chance 62% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSSVg Velbert to win ✓62% · @1.87
Double chanceEither team to win ✓85% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓69% · @1.27
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.33
SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
SSVg Velbert welcome SC St. Tönis for a Oberliga Niederrhein fixture on Sunday 11 October (14:00 WAT). In the table, SSVg Velbert are 2nd, among the top four, on 28 points after 12 matches; SC St. Tönis are 4th (among the top four) with 21.
Current form
SSVg Velbert, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over KFC Uerdingen 05, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game.
SC St. Tönis, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to BW Dingden, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give SSVg Velbert 2.5 xG, SC St. Tönis 1.4 xG – a total near 3.9. That is an open game on paper: 74% for three or more goals, 69% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – SSVg Velbert 62%, draw 15%, SC St. Tönis 23%.
GG/NG: GG (69%) at 1.27.
Price worth noting: SSVg Velbert to win @1.87 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: SSVg Velbert 2–1 SC St. Tönis. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
SSVg Velbert62%fair 1.60 · @1.87
Draw15%fair 6.65 · @4.25
SC St. Tönis23%fair 4.43 · @2.94
3.91Expected goals
2.48SSVg Velbert xG
1.42SC St. Tönis xG
69%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
3–17%
1–17%
2–26%
2–06%
3–25%
From our goals model: SSVg Velbert 2.5 – 1.4 SC St. Tönis expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
SSVg Velbert to win✓
62%
1.60
1.87 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
85%
1.18
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
69%
1.45
1.27
Draw no bet
SSVg Velbert (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.36
–
Asian handicap
SSVg Velbert -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.73
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.37
First team to score
SSVg Velbert to score first
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
SSVg Velbert ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT SSVg Velbert / FT SSVg Velbert✓
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.33
–
Recent results
SSVg Velbert – last 6
WWWWLL
2 Oct
@ KFC Uerdingen 05
2–1
W
27 Sep
vs BW Dingden
5–1
W
20 Sep
@ Meerbusch
3–0
W
12 Sep
vs Büderich
2–1
W
6 Sep
@ Sonsbeck
2–4
L
28 Aug
vs Schonnebeck
3–5
L
2.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
SC St. Tönis – last 6
LWLWWD
2 Oct
@ BW Dingden
0–1
L
27 Sep
vs Büderich
4–0
W
18 Sep
@ Schonnebeck
1–3
L
13 Sep
vs Wuppertaler SV
2–1
W
9 Sep
@ Viktoria Jüchen-Garz.
3–1
W
4 Sep
@ Germania Ratingen
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between SSVg Velbert and SC St. Tönis.
What is the prediction for SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis?
On our numbers SSVg Velbert have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 15% and SC St. Tönis 23%.
How many goals will there be in SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis?
Our predicted score is SSVg Velbert 2–1 SC St. Tönis, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis?
SSVg Velbert vs SC St. Tönis (Oberliga Niederrhein) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
