Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Wellington Phoenix to win @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultWellington Phoenix to win ✓62% · @1.75
Double chanceWellington Phoenix or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.62
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.43
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Wellington Phoenix welcome Central Coast Mariners to Hnry Stadium for a A League fixture on Sunday 25 October (03:00 WAT). In the table, Wellington Phoenix are 1st, leading the league, on 10 points after 4 matches; Central Coast Mariners are 11th (in the drop zone) with 2.
Current form
Wellington Phoenix, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Melbourne Victory, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Central Coast Mariners, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Newcastle Jets, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Wellington Phoenix, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Central Coast Mariners.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Wellington Phoenix 2.3 xG, Central Coast Mariners 1.2 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 68% for three or more goals, 64% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Wellington Phoenix 62%, draw 22%, Central Coast Mariners 16%.
Lower-risk option: Wellington Phoenix or draw (84%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Wellington Phoenix to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Wellington Phoenix or draw (84%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Central Coast Mariners. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Wellington Phoenix62%fair 1.62 · @1.75
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.60
Central Coast Mariners16%fair 6.36 · @4.00
3.50Expected goals
2.34Wellington Phoenix xG
1.16Central Coast Mariners xG
64%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–08%
1–18%
3–17%
1–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: Wellington Phoenix 2.3 – 1.2 Central Coast Mariners expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Wellington Phoenix to win✓
62%
1.62
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Wellington Phoenix or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.62
Draw no bet
Wellington Phoenix (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Wellington Phoenix -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
–
First team to score
Wellington Phoenix to score first✓
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Wellington Phoenix ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Wellington Phoenix / FT Wellington Phoenix✗
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.43
–
Recent results
Wellington Phoenix – last 6
WLWLWW
18 Oct
vs Melbourne Victory
2–1
W
24 Apr
@ Macarthur
0–4
L
18 Apr
vs Western Sydney Wanderers
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Melbourne City
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Melbourne Victory
1–0
W
21 Mar
@ Brisbane Roar
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Central Coast Mariners – last 6
DLLDLW
17 Oct
vs Newcastle Jets
2–2
D
12 Sep
@ Vanuatu United
0–1
L
9 Sep
@ Vanuatu United
2–3
L
22 Jul
@ Sydney United
1–1
D
25 Apr
@ Newcastle Jets
0–4
L
19 Apr
@ Auckland
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Wellington Phoenix and Central Coast Mariners.
What is the prediction for Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
Our pick is Wellington Phoenix or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
On our numbers Wellington Phoenix have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Central Coast Mariners 16%.
How many goals will there be in Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
Our predicted score is Wellington Phoenix 2–1 Central Coast Mariners, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners?
Wellington Phoenix vs Central Coast Mariners (A League) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Hnry Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
