Alvechurch 61%Draw 22%Bury Town 17%Expected goals 1.77 – 0.78
83%
Betarazi pick
Alvechurch or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Alvechurch to win @ 1.90 – our chance 61% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlvechurch to win ✗61% · @1.90
Double chanceAlvechurch or draw ✗83% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.25
Alvechurch vs Bury Town: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Bury Town travel to face Alvechurch on Saturday 10 October in the Non League Premier Southern Central – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Alvechurch are 6th, upper half, on 29 points after 15 matches; Bury Town are 3rd (among the top four) with 36.
Current form
Alvechurch, last 5: WDLDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Cambridge City, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Bury Town, last 5: LDWLW Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Spalding United, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alvechurch 1.8 xG, Bury Town 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 46%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alvechurch 61%, draw 22%, Bury Town 17%.
Lower-risk option: Alvechurch or draw (83%) at 1.25.
Price worth noting: Alvechurch to win @1.90 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Alvechurch or draw (83%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.20, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alvechurch 1–0 Bury Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alvechurch61%fair 1.63 · @1.90
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.40
Bury Town17%fair 5.94 · @3.40
2.55Expected goals
1.77Alvechurch xG
0.78Bury Town xG
46%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Alvechurch 1.8 – 0.8 Bury Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alvechurch to win✗
61%
1.63
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Alvechurch or draw✗
83%
1.20
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
–
Draw no bet
Alvechurch (draw no bet)✗
78%
1.27
–
Asian handicap
Alvechurch -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
First team to score
Alvechurch to score first✗
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Alvechurch ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alvechurch / FT Alvechurch✗
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.25
–
Recent results
Alvechurch – last 6
WDLDWW
3 Oct
@ Cambridge City
2–1
W
29 Sep
vs Stourbridge
0–0
D
26 Sep
vs Bourne Town
1–2
L
22 Sep
@ Anstey Nomads
2–2
D
19 Sep
vs Racing Club Warwick
3–1
W
12 Sep
vs Stamford
4–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bury Town – last 6
LDWLWW
6 Oct
@ Spalding United
0–4
L
3 Oct
vs Spalding United
1–1
D
29 Sep
@ Bishop's Stortford
2–1
W
26 Sep
@ St Albans City
1–4
L
22 Sep
vs Hitchin Town
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Gorleston
4–3
W
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alvechurch and Bury Town.
What is the prediction for Alvechurch vs Bury Town?
Our pick is Alvechurch or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Alvechurch vs Bury Town?
On our numbers Alvechurch have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bury Town 17%.
How many goals will there be in Alvechurch vs Bury Town?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alvechurch vs Bury Town?
Our predicted score is Alvechurch 1–0 Bury Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Alvechurch vs Bury Town?
Alvechurch vs Bury Town (Non League Premier Southern Central) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
