Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.00 – our chance 53% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +60%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✓53% · @3.00
Double chanceUnião Santarém or draw ✓79% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✓13% · fair 7.61
União Santarém vs Oliveirense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:30 WAT, Friday 14 August: União Santarém v Oliveirense in the Liga 3, played at Campo Cha das Padeiras. In the table, União Santarém are 4th, among the top four, on 13 points after 9 matches; Oliveirense are 3rd (among the top four) with 13. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
União Santarém, last 5: LDLDD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to SC Covilha, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Oliveirense, last 5: DLDLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Louletano, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give União Santarém 0.9 xG, Oliveirense 0.8 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – União Santarém 25%, draw 53%, Oliveirense 21%.
Lower-risk option: União Santarém or draw (79%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (84%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: União Santarém 0–0 Oliveirense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
União Santarém25%fair 3.93 · @2.38
Draw53%fair 1.88 · @3.00
Oliveirense21%fair 4.70 · @2.90
1.69Expected goals
0.88União Santarém xG
0.81Oliveirense xG
52%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–018%
1–016%
0–115%
1–113%
2–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: União Santarém 0.9 – 0.8 Oliveirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
53%
1.88
3.00 ▲
Double chance
União Santarém or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.85
Draw no bet
União Santarém (draw no bet)
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
Oliveirense +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.62 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
First team to score
União Santarém to score first
43%
2.35
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
54%
1.84
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
26%
3.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✓
13%
7.61
–
Recent results
União Santarém – last 6
LDLDDD
8 Aug
@ SC Covilha
0–2
L
31 Jul
vs Academica
0–0
D
10 May
@ Amarante
0–1
L
2 May
@ CF Os Belenenses
1–1
D
26 Apr
vs Academica
1–1
D
19 Apr
@ Guimaraes B
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Oliveirense – last 6
DLDLWL
8 Aug
vs Louletano
0–0
D
17 May
vs Felgueiras 1932
1–5
L
2 May
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
0–0
D
27 Apr
@ Chaves
1–2
L
22 Apr
vs Benfica B
3–0
W
3 Apr
vs Portimonense
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between União Santarém and Oliveirense.
What is the prediction for União Santarém vs Oliveirense?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win União Santarém vs Oliveirense?
On our numbers União Santarém have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 53% and Oliveirense 21%.
How many goals will there be in União Santarém vs Oliveirense?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for União Santarém vs Oliveirense?
Our predicted score is União Santarém 0–0 Oliveirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is União Santarém vs Oliveirense?
União Santarém vs Oliveirense (Liga 3) kicks off on Friday 14 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Campo Cha das Padeiras.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
