Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
2
Value bet: Leça to win @ 2.80 – our chance 41% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLeça to win ✗41% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.49
Pacos Ferreira vs Leça: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Leça travel to face Pacos Ferreira on Friday 23 October in the Liga 3 – the ball rolls at 20:30 WAT. In the table, Pacos Ferreira are 8th, upper half, on 11 points after 9 matches; Leça are 2nd (among the top four) with 14. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Pacos Ferreira, last 5: WDDDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Guimaraes B, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Leça, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Penafiel, away. Away from home the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Leça, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.0 for Pacos Ferreira.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pacos Ferreira 1.3 xG, Leça 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pacos Ferreira 35%, draw 23%, Leça 41%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Leça to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.73 – longer than our fair 1.65, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pacos Ferreira 1–1 Leça. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pacos Ferreira35%fair 2.84 · @2.38
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.00
Leça41%fair 2.41 · @2.80
2.75Expected goals
1.31Pacos Ferreira xG
1.44Leça xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Pacos Ferreira 1.3 – 1.4 Leça expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leça to win✗
41%
2.41
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.65
1.73
Draw no bet
Leça (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.85
–
Asian handicap
Pacos Ferreira +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Leça to score first✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leça / FT Leça✗
24%
4.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.49
–
Recent results
Pacos Ferreira – last 6
WDDDLL
11 Oct
@ Guimaraes B
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs São João Ver
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Vianense
2–2
D
29 Aug
vs Fafe
0–0
D
22 Aug
vs Varzim
1–4
L
15 Aug
vs Paredes
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Leça – last 6
WWWWLW
17 Oct
@ Penafiel
1–0
W
10 Oct
vs AD Marco 09
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Mortágua
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ Trofense
4–1
W
6 Sep
vs Fafe
0–3
L
23 Aug
@ Paredes
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pacos Ferreira and Leça.
What is the prediction for Pacos Ferreira vs Leça?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Pacos Ferreira vs Leça?
On our numbers Pacos Ferreira have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Leça 41%.
How many goals will there be in Pacos Ferreira vs Leça?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pacos Ferreira vs Leça?
Our predicted score is Pacos Ferreira 1–1 Leça, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Pacos Ferreira vs Leça?
Pacos Ferreira vs Leça (Liga 3) kicks off on Friday 23 October 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
