Value bet: União Santarém to win @ 3.28 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMafra to win ✗44% · @2.04
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.24
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.68
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.08
União Santarém vs Mafra: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 6 November the Liga 3 brings União Santarém against Mafra at Campo Cha das Padeiras. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, União Santarém are 4th, among the top four, on 13 points after 9 matches; Mafra are 5th (upper half) with 12. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
União Santarém, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Atlético CP, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.
Mafra, last 5: WDDDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Louletano, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours União Santarém, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Mafra.
Head to head
When they last met (3 Apr 2026) it ended Mafra 2–1 União Santarém. The last 2 head-to-heads: União Santarém 1 win, Mafra 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.5 goals and saw GG land 2 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give União Santarém 1.3 xG, Mafra 1.6 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – União Santarém 33%, draw 23%, Mafra 44%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.68.
Price worth noting: União Santarém to win @3.28 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.24). Most likely score in line with that pick: União Santarém 1–1 Mafra. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
União Santarém33%fair 3.01 · @3.28
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.18
Mafra44%fair 2.27 · @2.04
2.90Expected goals
1.33União Santarém xG
1.57Mafra xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–07%
0–27%
From our goals model: União Santarém 1.3 – 1.6 Mafra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for União Santarém vs Mafra?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win União Santarém vs Mafra?
On our numbers União Santarém have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mafra 44%.
How many goals will there be in União Santarém vs Mafra?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for União Santarém vs Mafra?
Our predicted score is União Santarém 1–1 Mafra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is União Santarém vs Mafra?
União Santarém vs Mafra (Liga 3) kicks off on Friday 6 November 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Campo Cha das Padeiras.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
