Al-Gharafa 58%Draw 16%Al Ahli Doha 26%Expected goals 2.01 – 1.24
64%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
1
Value bet: Al-Gharafa to win @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAl-Gharafa to win ✗58% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✗84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.40
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.30
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Al-Gharafa welcome Al Ahli Doha to Al Gharafa Stadium for a Stars League fixture on Thursday 22 October (17:45 WAT). In the table, Al-Gharafa are 10th, in the drop zone, on 9 points after 9 matches; Al Ahli Doha are 7th (lower half) with 12. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Al-Gharafa, last 5: DLLWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Al-Rayyan SC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Al Ahli Doha, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Al Wakrah, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (18 Mar 2026) it ended Al-Gharafa 1–4 Al Ahli Doha.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Al-Gharafa 2.0 xG, Al Ahli Doha 1.2 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 63% for three or more goals, 64% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Al-Gharafa 58%, draw 16%, Al Ahli Doha 26%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.40.
Price worth noting: Al-Gharafa to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (64%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Al-Gharafa 2–1 Al Ahli Doha. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Al-Gharafa58%fair 1.72 · @1.85
Draw16%fair 6.43 · @3.80
Al Ahli Doha26%fair 3.80 · @3.20
3.25Expected goals
2.01Al-Gharafa xG
1.24Al Ahli Doha xG
64%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–110%
2–08%
1–08%
3–16%
2–26%
From our goals model: Al-Gharafa 2.0 – 1.2 Al Ahli Doha expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
On our numbers Al-Gharafa have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Al Ahli Doha 26%.
How many goals will there be in Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
Our predicted score is Al-Gharafa 2–1 Al Ahli Doha, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha?
Al-Gharafa vs Al Ahli Doha (Stars League) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Al Gharafa Stadium .
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
