Value bet: Hercílio Luz to win @ 3.25 – our chance 33% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFigueirense to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · fair 2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.05
Figueirense vs Hercílio Luz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Saturday 10 October: Figueirense v Hercílio Luz in the Copa Santa Catarina.
Current form
Figueirense, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Metropolitano, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Hercílio Luz, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Nação, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Figueirense 1.5 xG, Hercílio Luz 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Figueirense 45%, draw 22%, Hercílio Luz 33%.
Price worth noting: Hercílio Luz to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (51%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Figueirense 1–1 Hercílio Luz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Figueirense45%fair 2.23 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.25
Hercílio Luz33%fair 3.00 · @3.25
2.84Expected goals
1.55Figueirense xG
1.29Hercílio Luz xG
50%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Figueirense 1.5 – 1.3 Hercílio Luz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Figueirense to win✓
45%
2.23
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
–
Draw no bet
Figueirense (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.74
–
Asian handicap
Hercílio Luz +1 (Asian handicap)
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Figueirense to score first✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Figueirense / FT Figueirense✗
26%
3.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.05
–
Recent results
Figueirense – last 6
WWWDWD
27 Sep
@ Metropolitano
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Santa Catarina
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Nação
1–0
W
5 Sep
vs Barra
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Maranhão
2–1
W
23 Aug
@ Inter De Limeira
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Hercílio Luz – last 6
WLWWWD
26 Sep
vs Nação
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Marcílio Dias
2–4
L
12 Sep
@ Joinville
3–1
W
30 Aug
vs Metropolitano
4–2
W
25 Jul
@ Nação
2–1
W
23 Jul
vs Caravaggio
0–0
D
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Figueirense and Hercílio Luz.
What is the prediction for Figueirense vs Hercílio Luz?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Figueirense vs Hercílio Luz?
On our numbers Figueirense have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Hercílio Luz 33%.
How many goals will there be in Figueirense vs Hercílio Luz?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Figueirense vs Hercílio Luz?
Our predicted score is Figueirense 1–1 Hercílio Luz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Figueirense vs Hercílio Luz?
Figueirense vs Hercílio Luz (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
