Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.73 – our chance 62% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMarcílio Dias to win ✗69% · @1.45
Double chanceMarcílio Dias or draw ✓90% · fair 1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.87
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗62% · @1.73
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.70
Nação vs Marcílio Dias: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 9 October the Copa Santa Catarina brings Nação against Marcílio Dias. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT.
Current form
Nação, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Hercílio Luz, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Marcílio Dias, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Blumenau, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.5 a game lately.
Momentum favours Marcílio Dias, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.3 for Nação.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nação 1.0 xG, Marcílio Dias 2.5 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 62% for three or more goals, 53% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nação 10%, draw 21%, Marcílio Dias 69%.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Marcílio Dias to win (69%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nação 0–2 Marcílio Dias. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nação10%fair 9.72 · @5.75
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @3.90
Marcílio Dias69%fair 1.45 · @1.45
3.53Expected goals
0.99Nação xG
2.55Marcílio Dias xG
53%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–29%
1–29%
0–38%
1–38%
0–17%
1–17%
From our goals model: Nação 1.0 – 2.5 Marcílio Dias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marcílio Dias to win✗
69%
1.45
1.45
Double chance
Marcílio Dias or draw✓
90%
1.11
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
–
Draw no bet
Marcílio Dias (draw no bet)
87%
1.15
–
Asian handicap
Marcílio Dias -1 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.73 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
First team to score
Marcílio Dias to score first✗
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
Marcílio Dias ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marcílio Dias / FT Marcílio Dias✗
48%
2.08
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.70
–
Recent results
Nação – last 6
LDLLDL
26 Sep
@ Hercílio Luz
1–2
L
23 Sep
@ Barra
3–3
D
19 Sep
vs Joinville
0–4
L
12 Sep
@ Figueirense
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Santa Catarina
2–2
D
25 Jul
vs Hercílio Luz
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Marcílio Dias – last 6
DWLWWL
26 Sep
@ Blumenau
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Hercílio Luz
4–2
W
13 Sep
@ Santa Catarina
1–2
L
7 Sep
@ Metropolitano
5–2
W
30 Aug
vs Joinville
4–2
W
11 Jul
@ Portuguesa
0–2
L
2.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nação and Marcílio Dias.
What is the prediction for Nação vs Marcílio Dias?
Our pick is Marcílio Dias to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Nação vs Marcílio Dias?
On our numbers Nação have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Marcílio Dias 69%.
How many goals will there be in Nação vs Marcílio Dias?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nação vs Marcílio Dias?
Our predicted score is Nação 0–2 Marcílio Dias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Nação vs Marcílio Dias?
Nação vs Marcílio Dias (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
