Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
Picks by market
ResultHercílio Luz to win ✓43% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · fair 1.75
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗64% · @1.60
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.93
Hercílio Luz vs Barra: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Hercílio Luz welcome Barra for a Copa Santa Catarina fixture on Saturday 17 October (22:00 WAT).
Current form
Hercílio Luz, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Figueirense, away. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game.
Barra, last 5: DLDDD Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Metropolitano, at home. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Hercílio Luz, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Barra.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Hercílio Luz 1.9 xG, Barra 1.7 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 64% for three or more goals, 57% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Hercílio Luz 43%, draw 21%, Barra 36%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (64%, odds 1.60 – longer than our fair 1.56, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Hercílio Luz 2–1 Barra. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Hercílio Luz43%fair 2.31 · @2.25
Draw21%fair 4.78 · @3.50
Barra36%fair 2.79 · @2.62
3.58Expected goals
1.88Hercílio Luz xG
1.70Barra xG
57%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–19%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
3–15%
1–05%
From our goals model: Hercílio Luz 1.9 – 1.7 Barra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hercílio Luz to win✓
43%
2.31
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
–
Draw no bet
Hercílio Luz (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Barra +1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
First team to score
Hercílio Luz to score first✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
36%
2.81
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hercílio Luz / FT Hercílio Luz✓
26%
3.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.93
–
Recent results
Hercílio Luz – last 6
LWLWWW
10 Oct
@ Figueirense
0–1
L
26 Sep
vs Nação
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Marcílio Dias
2–4
L
12 Sep
@ Joinville
3–1
W
30 Aug
vs Metropolitano
4–2
W
25 Jul
@ Nação
2–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Barra – last 6
DLDDDW
11 Oct
vs Metropolitano
3–3
D
26 Sep
@ Joinville
1–2
L
23 Sep
vs Nação
3–3
D
15 Sep
vs Blumenau
2–2
D
5 Sep
@ Figueirense
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Volta Redonda
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hercílio Luz and Barra.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Hercílio Luz vs Barra?
On our numbers Hercílio Luz have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Barra 36%.
How many goals will there be in Hercílio Luz vs Barra?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hercílio Luz vs Barra?
Our predicted score is Hercílio Luz 2–1 Barra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Hercílio Luz vs Barra?
Hercílio Luz vs Barra (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
