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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Marcílio Dias v Figueirense: numbers & prediction

2–2
FT
Marcílio Dias 40%Draw 22%Figueirense 38% Expected goals 1.40 – 1.37
50%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Fair pick · fair odds 1.98 · bookmaker 1.95 · Won ✓

3/10Rating
1.95Odds

Picks by market

ResultMarcílio Dias to win ✗40% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · fair 1.96
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗3% · fair 34.71

Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Figueirense travel to face Marcílio Dias on Friday 16 October in the Copa Santa Catarina – the ball rolls at 23:30 WAT.

Current form

Marcílio Dias, last 5: DDWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Nação, away. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.

Figueirense, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Hercílio Luz, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Figueirense, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.8 for Marcílio Dias.

Head to head

When they last met (21 Feb 2026) it ended Figueirense 0–1 Marcílio Dias.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Marcílio Dias 1.4 xG, Figueirense 1.4 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 49%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Marcílio Dias 40%, draw 22%, Figueirense 38%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (50%, odds 1.95). Most likely score in line with that pick: Marcílio Dias 2–1 Figueirense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Marcílio Dias40%fair 2.50 · @2.25
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.25
Figueirense38%fair 2.61 · @2.75
2.77Expected goals
1.40Marcílio Dias xG
1.37Figueirense xG
49%Both score
50%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
1–09%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–06%

From our goals model: Marcílio Dias 1.4 – 1.4 Figueirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMarcílio Dias to win ✗40%2.502.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78%1.281.25
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✗51%1.96–
Draw no betMarcílio Dias (draw no bet)51%1.96–
Asian handicapFigueirense +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.61–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76%1.31–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓50%1.981.95
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗70%1.43–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓85%1.17–
First team to scoreMarcílio Dias to score first ✓47%2.11–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗42%2.40–
Half-time / full-timeHT Marcílio Dias / FT Marcílio Dias ✗22%4.51–
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗3%34.71–

Recent results

Marcílio Dias – last 6

DDWLWW
9 Oct@ Nação0–0D
26 Sep@ Blumenau1–1D
19 Sepvs Hercílio Luz4–2W
13 Sep@ Santa Catarina1–2L
7 Sep@ Metropolitano5–2W
30 Augvs Joinville4–2W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Figueirense – last 6

WWWWDW
10 Octvs Hercílio Luz1–0W
27 Sep@ Metropolitano1–0W
20 Sep@ Santa Catarina2–1W
12 Sepvs Nação1–0W
5 Sepvs Barra1–1D
29 Augvs Maranhão2–1W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

21 Feb 2026Figueirense v Marcílio Dias0–1
Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense head-to-head page →

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.95.

Who will win Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense?

On our numbers Marcílio Dias have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Figueirense 38%.

How many goals will there be in Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense?

Our predicted score is Marcílio Dias 2–1 Figueirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense?

Marcílio Dias vs Figueirense (Copa Santa Catarina) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.