Value bet: Águila to win @ 3.25 – our chance 33% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFirpo to win ✓44% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.46
Firpo vs Águila: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 27 September the Primera Division brings Firpo against Águila. Kick-off: 01:00 WAT. In the table, Firpo are 1st, leading the league, on 40 points after 20 matches; Águila are 4th (among the top four) with 30.
Current form
Firpo, last 5: DWLLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Cacahuatique, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Águila, last 5: WWDDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Platense, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Águila, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.2 for Firpo.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Jul 2026) it ended Águila 1–1 Firpo. The last 3 head-to-heads: Firpo 1 win, Águila 0, draws 2. Those games averaged 2.3 goals and saw GG land 3 times.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Firpo 1.4 xG, Águila 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Firpo 44%, draw 23%, Águila 33%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Águila to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.74, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Firpo 1–1 Águila. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Firpo44%fair 2.28 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.00
Águila33%fair 3.05 · @3.25
2.52Expected goals
1.38Firpo xG
1.14Águila xG
57%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Firpo 1.4 – 1.1 Águila expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Firpo vs Águila?
On our numbers Firpo have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Águila 33%.
How many goals will there be in Firpo vs Águila?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Firpo vs Águila?
Our predicted score is Firpo 1–1 Águila, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Firpo vs Águila?
Firpo vs Águila (Primera Division) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
