Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.60Odds
1
Value bet: Lota Schwager to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLota Schwager to win ✗56% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.53
Lota Schwager vs Provincial Ovalle: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:00 WAT, Saturday 26 September: Lota Schwager v Provincial Ovalle in the Segunda División. In the table, Lota Schwager are 10th, lower half, on 13 points after 12 matches; Provincial Ovalle are 14th (in the drop zone) with 6.
Current form
Lota Schwager, last 5: DDLWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Colina, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Provincial Ovalle, last 5: WDDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Colina, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lota Schwager 1.5 xG, Provincial Ovalle 0.8 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 44%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lota Schwager 56%, draw 21%, Provincial Ovalle 23%.
Price worth noting: Lota Schwager to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (60%, odds 1.60). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lota Schwager 1–0 Provincial Ovalle. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lota Schwager56%fair 1.79 · @1.91
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @3.25
Provincial Ovalle23%fair 4.34 · @3.50
2.26Expected goals
1.46Lota Schwager xG
0.79Provincial Ovalle xG
44%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–112%
2–011%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Lota Schwager 1.5 – 0.8 Provincial Ovalle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lota Schwager to win✗
56%
1.79
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
–
Draw no bet
Lota Schwager (draw no bet)✗
71%
1.41
–
Asian handicap
Provincial Ovalle +1 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Lota Schwager to score first✗
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lota Schwager / FT Lota Schwager✗
32%
3.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.53
–
Recent results
Lota Schwager – last 6
DDLWDW
29 Aug
@ Colina
0–0
D
22 Aug
vs Santiago Morning
1–1
D
16 Aug
@ Deportes Rengo
0–1
L
8 Aug
vs General Velásquez
3–1
W
12 Jul
vs Provincial Osorno
2–2
D
5 Jul
@ Colchagua
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Provincial Ovalle – last 6
WDDLWL
7 Sep
vs Colina
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Santiago Morning
0–0
D
22 Aug
vs Real San Joaquín
1–1
D
16 Aug
@ General Velásquez
0–1
L
4 Jul
vs Colina
2–1
W
26 Jun
@ Santiago City
2–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lota Schwager and Provincial Ovalle.
What is the prediction for Lota Schwager vs Provincial Ovalle?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Lota Schwager vs Provincial Ovalle?
On our numbers Lota Schwager have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Provincial Ovalle 23%.
How many goals will there be in Lota Schwager vs Provincial Ovalle?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lota Schwager vs Provincial Ovalle?
Our predicted score is Lota Schwager 1–0 Provincial Ovalle, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Lota Schwager vs Provincial Ovalle?
Lota Schwager vs Provincial Ovalle (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
