Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.28Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.70 – our chance 64% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultToluca to win ✗39% · @2.74
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.39
Toluca vs Cruz Azul: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 26 July the Campeón De Campeones brings Toluca against Cruz Azul at Dignity Health Sports Park. Kick-off: 01:30 WAT.
Current form
Toluca, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to U.N.A.M. - Pumas, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Cruz Azul, last 5: WWDWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Puebla, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Momentum favours Cruz Azul, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.2 for Toluca.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Toluca 1.7 xG, Cruz Azul 1.5 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 56% and GG at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Toluca 39%, draw 24%, Cruz Azul 38%.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Toluca 1–1 Cruz Azul. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Toluca39%fair 2.60 · @2.74
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.35
Cruz Azul38%fair 2.66 · @2.46
3.20Expected goals
1.69Toluca xG
1.51Cruz Azul xG
64%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
0–16%
From our goals model: Toluca 1.7 – 1.5 Cruz Azul expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✗
39%
2.60
2.74 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.56
1.70 ▲
Draw no bet
Toluca (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.97
–
Asian handicap
Cruz Azul +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.79
1.90 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.53
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.11
First team to score
Toluca to score first
51%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
38%
2.62
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✗
25%
3.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.39
–
Recent results
Toluca – last 6
LWDLLW
22 Jul
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1–2
L
19 Jul
@ Guadalajara Chivas
2–0
W
10 Jul
@ Atlante FC
3–3
D
4 Jul
@ Cancún
0–1
L
11 May
@ CF Pachuca
0–2
L
7 May
vs Los Angeles FC
4–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cruz Azul – last 6
WWDWDW
22 Jul
vs Puebla
2–1
W
18 Jul
@ Atletico San Luis
3–2
W
5 Jul
@ Monarcas
3–3
D
25 May
@ U.N.A.M. - Pumas
2–1
W
22 May
vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas
0–0
D
17 May
@ Guadalajara Chivas
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and Cruz Azul.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Toluca vs Cruz Azul?
On our numbers Toluca have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cruz Azul 38%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Cruz Azul?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Cruz Azul?
Our predicted score is Toluca 1–1 Cruz Azul, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Cruz Azul?
Toluca vs Cruz Azul (Campeón De Campeones) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Dignity Health Sports Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Campeón De Campeones · Mexico · Dignity Health Sports Park
