Monterrey W 65%Draw 21%Toluca W 14%Expected goals 2.34 – 1.06
86%
Betarazi pick
Monterrey W or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Monterrey W to win @ 1.70 – our chance 65% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMonterrey W to win ✓65% · @1.70
Double chanceMonterrey W or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.50
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66% · fair 1.51
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.33
Monterrey W vs Toluca W: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 6 September the Liga MX Femenil brings Monterrey W against Toluca W at Cancha El Barrial. Kick-off: 02:00 WAT. In the table, Monterrey W are 2nd, among the top four, on 37 points after 14 matches; Toluca W are 6th (upper half) with 27.
Current form
Monterrey W, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Querétaro W, away. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Toluca W, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over León W, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monterrey W 2.3 xG, Toluca W 1.1 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 66% for three or more goals, 62% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monterrey W 65%, draw 21%, Toluca W 14%.
Lower-risk option: Monterrey W or draw (86%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: Monterrey W to win @1.70 – the bookmaker implies 59%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Monterrey W or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.17, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monterrey W 2–1 Toluca W. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monterrey W65%fair 1.54 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @3.70
Toluca W14%fair 6.94 · @3.80
3.40Expected goals
2.34Monterrey W xG
1.06Toluca W xG
62%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
1–08%
3–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Monterrey W 2.3 – 1.1 Toluca W expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monterrey W to win✓
65%
1.54
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Monterrey W or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.63
1.50
Draw no bet
Monterrey W (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Monterrey W -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
74%
1.34
–
First team to score
Monterrey W to score first✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Monterrey W ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monterrey W / FT Monterrey W✓
44%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.33
–
Recent results
Monterrey W – last 6
WLWWWL
30 Aug
@ Querétaro W
4–0
W
22 Aug
vs León W
2–3
L
18 Aug
@ Santos Laguna W
4–1
W
9 Aug
vs Atlante W
3–1
W
2 Aug
@ Tijuana W
2–1
W
17 May
@ América W
0–3
L
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Toluca W – last 6
WWDWWL
29 Aug
vs León W
1–0
W
24 Aug
@ Atlante W
2–1
W
18 Aug
vs Atlas W
1–1
D
11 Aug
vs Juárez W
2–0
W
3 Aug
@ Atlético San Luis W
4–1
W
8 May
vs América W
1–7
L
1.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monterrey W and Toluca W.
What is the prediction for Monterrey W vs Toluca W?
Our pick is Monterrey W or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Monterrey W vs Toluca W?
On our numbers Monterrey W have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Toluca W 14%.
How many goals will there be in Monterrey W vs Toluca W?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monterrey W vs Toluca W?
Our predicted score is Monterrey W 2–1 Toluca W, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Monterrey W vs Toluca W?
Monterrey W vs Toluca W (Liga MX Femenil) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Cancha El Barrial.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
