Good pick · fair odds 1.68 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.73Odds
Picks by market
ResultAEK Larnaca to win ✗44% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.07
AEK Larnaca vs Pafos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:00 WAT, Sunday 13 September: AEK Larnaca v Pafos in the 1. Division, played at AEK Arena. In the table, AEK Larnaca are 1st, leading the league, on 20 points after 9 matches; Pafos are 6th (upper half) with 16.
Current form
AEK Larnaca, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Nea Salamis, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Pafos, last 5: DWWDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Olympiakos, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AEK Larnaca 1.6 xG, Pafos 1.4 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AEK Larnaca 44%, draw 23%, Pafos 33%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (60%, odds 1.73 – longer than our fair 1.68, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: AEK Larnaca 1–1 Pafos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AEK Larnaca44%fair 2.28 · @2.30
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.00
Pafos33%fair 3.03 · @2.80
3.00Expected goals
1.62AEK Larnaca xG
1.38Pafos xG
60%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: AEK Larnaca 1.6 – 1.4 Pafos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AEK Larnaca to win✗
44%
2.28
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.68
1.73
Draw no bet
AEK Larnaca (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Pafos +1 (Asian handicap)✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
AEK Larnaca to score first✗
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
40%
2.53
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AEK Larnaca / FT AEK Larnaca✗
26%
3.85
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.07
–
Recent results
AEK Larnaca – last 6
WWLWLD
6 Sep
@ Nea Salamis
4–1
W
29 Aug
vs Apoel Nicosia
3–1
W
8 Aug
vs Omonia Aradippou
0–1
L
30 Jul
@ Beitar Jerusalem
3–2
W
23 Jul
vs Beitar Jerusalem
0–1
L
16 Jul
@ Apollon Limassol
0–0
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Pafos – last 6
DWWDDD
7 Sep
vs Olympiakos
0–0
D
3 Sep
@ Omonia Nicosia
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Karmiotissa
3–0
W
27 Aug
vs Dinamo Tirana
2–2
D
20 Aug
@ Dinamo Tirana
1–1
D
13 Aug
vs Red Bull Salzburg
3–3
D
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AEK Larnaca and Pafos.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
On our numbers AEK Larnaca have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Pafos 33%.
How many goals will there be in AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
Our predicted score is AEK Larnaca 1–1 Pafos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is AEK Larnaca vs Pafos?
AEK Larnaca vs Pafos (1. Division) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at AEK Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
