Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
Picks by market
ResultMachico to win ✓44% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.73
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗65% · @1.53
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.51
Machico vs Florgrade: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Florgrade travel to face Machico on Saturday 10 October in the Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Machico are 2nd, among the top four, on 16 points after 8 matches; Florgrade are 7th (upper half) with 11.
Current form
Machico, last 5: WDDWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Alpendorada, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Florgrade, last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Camacha, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Machico 1.1 xG, Florgrade 0.9 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Machico 44%, draw 23%, Florgrade 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (65%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Machico 1–0 Florgrade. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Machico44%fair 2.29 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.00
Florgrade33%fair 3.03 · @3.20
1.94Expected goals
1.07Machico xG
0.87Florgrade xG
42%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–112%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Machico 1.1 – 0.9 Florgrade expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Machico to win✓
44%
2.29
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
–
Draw no bet
Machico (draw no bet)✓
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Florgrade +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
95%
1.05
–
First team to score
Machico to score first✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.51
–
Recent results
Machico – last 6
WDDWDD
13 Sep
@ Alpendorada
2–1
W
4 Sep
@ Salgueiros
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Camacha
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Beira-Mar
2–0
W
15 Aug
vs Estrela Calheta
0–0
D
25 Jul
@ Maritimo
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Florgrade – last 6
WWLDWD
27 Sep
@ Camacha
1–0
W
13 Sep
vs Sanjoanense
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Camacha
0–1
L
30 Aug
vs São João Ver
0–0
D
23 Aug
vs Guarda
1–0
W
16 Aug
@ União Lamas
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Machico and Florgrade.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Machico vs Florgrade?
On our numbers Machico have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Florgrade 33%.
How many goals will there be in Machico vs Florgrade?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Machico vs Florgrade?
Our predicted score is Machico 1–0 Florgrade, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Machico vs Florgrade?
Machico vs Florgrade (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group B) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
