FC Serpa 13%Draw 24%Vitoria Setubal 63%Expected goals 0.67 – 1.76
87%
Betarazi pick
Vitoria Setubal or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.33 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.33Odds
2
Value bet: Vitoria Setubal to win @ 1.83 – our chance 63% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVitoria Setubal to win ✗63% · @1.83
Double chanceVitoria Setubal or draw ✗87% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.44
FC Serpa vs Vitoria Setubal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
FC Serpa welcome Vitoria Setubal for a Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D fixture on Sunday 16 August (17:00 WAT).
Current form
FC Serpa, last 5: LLWDW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Juventude Évora, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FC Serpa 0.7 xG, Vitoria Setubal 1.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 45%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FC Serpa 13%, draw 24%, Vitoria Setubal 63%.
Lower-risk option: Vitoria Setubal or draw (87%) at 1.33.
Price worth noting: Vitoria Setubal to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Vitoria Setubal or draw (87%, odds 1.33 – longer than our fair 1.15, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Serpa 0–1 Vitoria Setubal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FC Serpa13%fair 7.76 · @4.00
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.20
Vitoria Setubal63%fair 1.59 · @1.83
2.43Expected goals
0.67FC Serpa xG
1.76Vitoria Setubal xG
45%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–116%
0–214%
1–110%
1–29%
0–09%
0–38%
From our goals model: FC Serpa 0.7 – 1.8 Vitoria Setubal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vitoria Setubal to win✗
63%
1.59
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Vitoria Setubal or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.33 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
–
Draw no bet
Vitoria Setubal (draw no bet)✗
83%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Vitoria Setubal -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Vitoria Setubal to score first
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Vitoria Setubal ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vitoria Setubal / FT Vitoria Setubal✗
40%
2.51
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.44
–
Recent results
FC Serpa – last 6
LLWDWD
22 Mar
vs Juventude Évora
0–3
L
15 Mar
@ Louletano
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs Sintrense
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Portimonense B
0–0
D
22 Feb
vs Atlético Malveira
1–0
W
15 Feb
@ Vasco da Gama Vidigueira
2–2
D
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Vitoria Setubal
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Serpa and Vitoria Setubal.
What is the prediction for FC Serpa vs Vitoria Setubal?
Our pick is Vitoria Setubal or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win FC Serpa vs Vitoria Setubal?
On our numbers FC Serpa have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Vitoria Setubal 63%.
How many goals will there be in FC Serpa vs Vitoria Setubal?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Serpa vs Vitoria Setubal?
Our predicted score is FC Serpa 0–1 Vitoria Setubal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is FC Serpa vs Vitoria Setubal?
FC Serpa vs Vitoria Setubal (Campeonato De Portugal Prio Group D) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Portel2
Sintrense2